Conflict Alerts

Conflict Alerts # 383, 26 May 2021

Myanmar: The military to ban its biggest rival - the National League of Democracy (NLD)
Aparupa Bhattacherjee

In the news
On 21 May, the military government-appointed election commission chair said that the NLD party should be disbanded. The regime accused the NLD of fraudulent behaviour in the 2020 election. He also suggested NLD leaders should be prosecuted as "traitors." 

On 24 May, the defence lawyer of Aung San Suu Kyi quoted her saying: "… the NLD party was founded for the people and it will continue to exist as long as the people are there." This was said during her first in-person meeting since the coup that took place ahead of a court hearing. On the same day, the hearing for the former President and Naypyitaw Council Chair was also held.  

Earlier, on 17 May, new sanctions were levied by the US, the UK and Canada against the military leaders and the economic conglomerates associated with them. According to the Association of Political Prisoners, more than 800 are killed, and approximately 4300 are detained, of which more than 73 are journalists.  

Issues at large
First, the political significance of Suu Kyi's NLD vis-a-vis the military supported USDP. The NLD - National League for Democracy, founded in 1988, is the most prominent political party of Myanmar, with Suu Kyi, as its chairperson. In the 1990 elections, it won more than 55 per cent of the vote and a majority of the seats. In the 2015 and 2020 elections, the NLD secured 80 per cent and 83 per cent of votes respectively. On the contrary, the Union Solidarity and Development Party established in 2010 with the military's support could only secure 30 and 26 seats out of the total 440 seats respectively in these two elections. With the NLD contesting, the UPDP's chance of securing reasonable seats in any forthcoming election is remote. Hence, the regime wants to keep the NLD away.

Second, the political significance of Aung San Suu Kyi, as the symbol of democracy for the masses. Suu Kyi is referred to as 'amay' (mother) and has always been people's hope for change. She is the daughter of the father of the Myanmar nation - Aung San, and has been revered by multiple ethnic groups despite differences. She has a popularity that the regime cannot match, hence want to keep her away from politics.

Third, the role of external sanctions in pressurizing the regime. As mentioned by the governmental spokesperson to CNN, sanctions do not impact the regime as its leaders have learned to live with it. The sanctions imposed on Myanmar until 2012 were ineffective to deter the ruling elite; instead it negatively impacted the people and Myanmar's economic development.   

In perspective
First, the change in regime's strategy and its fallout. It has shifted from killing on the streets to detentions since April. This could be an outcome of the ASEAN summit on 24 April. This highlights the regime's intent to hold on to power.  

Second, none of the international sanctions and appeal will impact this government's resolution. The businesses of these leaders or their families are not dependent on western countries, and they have their allies to support them.  

July 2021 | Conflict Alert # 411
Wildfires: Siberia to the US
July 2021 | Conflict Alert # 409
Bosnia: 26 years after the Srebrenica Massacre
July 2021 | Conflict Alert # 405
Colombia: Two months of protests
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 399
Myanmar: New UNGA resolution
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 397
Myanmar: The Aung San Suu Kyi trial begins
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 390
Burkina Faso: Another massacre in Africa
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 386
Nigeria: Another mass abduction grips Niger state
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 385
Colombia: The protests continue
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 382
Israel-Hamas ceasefire: The long road to peace
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 380
Colombia: Three weeks of protests
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 378
Israel-Palestine: Who wants what?
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 374
Yemen: The Battle for Marib rages on
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 371
Pakistan: Meetings with Afghan leaders

April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 369
Israel-Syria: Continuing Missile Strikes
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 362
Iran: Another act of
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 358
India: Another Maoist attack in Chhattisgarh
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 356
Global Gender Gap Report 2021: Main Takeaways
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 353
Niger: 137 massacred in the latest attack by gunmen
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 351
Yemen: Saudi Arabia announces ceasefire
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 347
Australia: Women fight against sexual violence 
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 345
The US: The George Floyd trial begins
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 340
Syria: UN report calls for a complete ceasefire

February 2021 | Conflict Alert # 333
South Korea: The 'Comfort Women' issue returns to haunt
January 2021 | Conflict Alert # 222
Russia: Pro-Navalny protests turn anti-government 
January 2021 | Conflict Alert # 220
COVID-19: The Vaccine Wars

December 2020 | Conflict Alert # 200
India: Farmers' protests intensify as deadlock persists

November 2020 | Conflict Alert # 191
Pakistan: Anti-French protests called off
October 2020 | Conflict Alert # 174
Bangladesh: Protests intensify against sexual violence
October 2020 | Conflict Alert # 167
India crosses 6 million-mark in COVID-19 cases
September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 166
Pakistan: The persisting polio problem
September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 156
Pakistan: Targeted Violence continues in Waziristan

September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 154
The anti-Racist Protests in the US: Between
August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 148
Israel and UAE normalize relations

August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 146
Bolivia: Protests against the Election postponement
August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 138
In Iraq, the protestors return to the streets 
July 2020 | Conflict Alert # 118
J&K: Geelani's Exit and Continuing Violence
June 2020 | Conflict Alert # 105
Black Lives Matter brings the US to its knees
May 2020 | Conflict Alert # 86
Libya: Khalifa Haftar announces ceasefire 
May 2020 | Conflict Alert # 81
India: The surge in violence in J&K
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 71
Afghanistan: 300 Taliban prisoners released

April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 67
Syria: New UN Report on Idlib

April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 64
A lethal impact on the Refugee/Migrant Camps 
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 63
Indigenous Communities battle a complete wipeout 

March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 51
Coronavirus & China: Fall in numbers 

March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 47
Coronavirus & Nepal: In the second stage, cancels

March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 44
Two Presidents in Afghanistan
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 42
'Aurat March': A New beginning across Pakistan 
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 38
Sri Lanka withdraws from 30/1 Geneva Resolution
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 35
A ceasefire between Israel, Islamic Jihad in Gaza

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 34
Libya: rivals withdraw from Geneva peace talks
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 33
India: Violence in Delhi
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 32
Afghanistan: Seven Days of Peace
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 31
Climate Change Fallouts: Impacts the Bird population

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 28
Pakistan: Court convicts LeT founder Hafiz Saeed
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 27
Pakistan: Suicide terrorism returns to haunt Quetta

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 26
Afghanistan: The US-Taliban Seven Day Deal
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 24
Israel: Violence in post  Trump-deal
January 2020 | Conflict Alert # 20
Kenya: Al Shabab and a week of killings
December 2019 | Conflict Alert # 19
Citizenship Amendment Bill:2019

November 2019 | Conflict Alert # 18
Lebanon: PM Hariri quits, but protests continue 
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 16
Bolivian unrest
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 15
Hundreds protest in Haiti

October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 14
Protests rock Chile
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 13
Hong Kong Violence: A divide within
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 12
Spain: The trouble in Catalonia
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 11
Turkey's Offensive in Syria

August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 9
Africa to be Polio Free
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 7
Myanmar: Teenage girls traded as brides to China

August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 6
Moscow Protests: Thousands rally in Moscow
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 3
Jordan Restores diplomatic ties with Qatar