Conflict Alerts # 633, 17 May 2024
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Shamini Velayutham In the news
On 16 May, after arguing for more emergency measures in response to Israel’s attack on Rafah, South Africa ended its arguments before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). According to South Africa, Israel's military operations in Rafah constitute a “genocidal” campaign that jeopardizes the “very survival of Palestinians.” To take further emergency action in response to the Gaza War, on 10 May, South Africa requested that the ICJ order Israel to evacuate from Rafah. South African Ambassador Vusi Madonsela warned of the dangers of former colonial powers denying genocide as Israel continues its onslaught in Gaza. He stated: “Israel is acting with complete impunity in Gaza, escalating a final wave of destruction from which there is no return.”
On the same day, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed a bill that would compel President Joe Biden to transfer weapons to Israel. By a largely party-line vote of 224 to 187, the Israel Security Assistance Support Act was passed. Three Republicans voted against the proposal, while 16 Democrats and the majority of Republicans supported it. The goal of the bill is to condemn the Democrats for postponing bomb shipments while pressuring Israel to take extra precautions to safeguard civilians in its conflict with Hamas.
On 15 May, according to the congressional aides, Biden’s administration told prominent lawmakers that it would be sending a ‘new package’ worth USD 1 billion in ‘arms and ammunition’ to Israel. It is said to be the first arms shipment consisting of ‘3500 high-payload bombs’ to Israel after its announcement on halting the arms supply in response to Israel’s attack on Rafah. The staff stated: “The package being sent includes about USD 700 million for tank ammunition, USD 500 million in tactical vehicles and USD 60 million in mortar rounds.”
On the same day, in a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that soldiers had started “an operation against terrorist operatives and infrastructure in the center of Jabalia camp.” On 11 May, the Israeli military issued an order to evacuate the Jabalia neighborhood in northern Gaza. It informed the local population that it would be resuming operations thereafter observing Hamas attempting to retake the region. On 17 December 2023, Over 100 people were injured and 90 people were killed as a result of the Israeli attacks on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. Similarly, on 4 November 2023, the Israeli airstrikes killed 195 civilians in the camp.
On 13 May, the Israeli forces intensified their attack on Rafah, forcing residents to flee from the region. Tens of thousands of residents were forced to leave Rafah on 11 May as Israel planned an expansion of its military campaign. Israeli forces have now left the eastern part of Rafah following the prior orders, moving into the outer edges of the highly populated crucial region.
Issues at large
First, the latest development in Rafah. Regarded to be the last stronghold of Hamas, Rafah also hosts close to a million from the rest of Gaza who have taken refuge. Approximately 300,000 of them in Rafah have recently left following Israel’s evacuation orders. Israel has been wanting its troops to enter into a Rafah to destroy Hamas and release several hostages. On 6 May, a day after Hamas accepted a ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt and Qatar, Israel’s 401st Brigade crossed the Rafah border. Israel asserted that the agreement did not meet its fundamental requirements. Israeli forces have taken over the Rafah international crossing into Gaza, blocking an essential path for humanitarian supplies and possibly creating a haven for residents fleeing a bombardment of buildings.
Second, the case in ICJ. On 11 January, South Africa presented its genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. During the hearing, South Africa concentrated on Israel's disregard for Gaza's needs in terms of food, water, medicine, fuel, shelter, and other humanitarian aid during Gaza's conflict with Hamas, a militant Palestinian organization. Additionally, it referred to Israel’s ongoing bombing assault, which, according to Gaza's health authorities, has claimed over 35,000 lives. In March, the court ruled that Israel must take all necessary and appropriate steps to guarantee that Palestinians in Gaza have access to basic food supplies, and it also issued further emergency measures. Recently, as Israeli forces move into Rafah and other regions, South Africa has reiterated its genocidal claims against Israel.
Third, the shifting US position on arms supply to Israel. On 9 May, for the first time, President Joe Biden declared that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a large-scale assault on Rafah, he would halt some US ammunition supplies to Israel, which he recognized had been used to kill civilians in Gaza. However, recently Biden's administration told the lawmakers that it would provide Israel with more than USD 1 billion worth of weapons and ammunition. Though one shipment of 2,000-pound and 500-pound bombs was delayed, and the Biden administration reviewed additional weapons shipments, Israel, a significant recipient of US military support for decades is still scheduled to receive billions of dollars' worth of armaments.
Fourth, the regrouping of Hamas. According to IDF Hamas is regrouping in parts of central and northern Gaza that Israel says it “cleared” several months ago. According to Israel, four Hamas battalions and hostages taken after the 7 October 2023 attack are currently in Rafah. Israeli soldiers attacked Rafah without making any progress, according to Palestinian residents and militants, while their tanks advanced into the center of Jabalia in northern Gaza, where they encountered ‘mortar bombs and anti-tank rockets’ from militants who have regrouped there.
In perspective
First, Israel’s intense attack Although Hamas claimed to have killed multiple soldiers, nevertheless, Israel's military claimed to have killed “a large number of terrorists” in Jabalia's refugee camp. Additionally, there is still intense fighting in and around Rafah. According to Israel, it killed 13,000 Hamas militants. However, given the current situation, Israel believes that Hamas militants have resurfaced in Rafah and northern Gaza.
As Israel's handling of the conflict is escalating dramatically on a global scale, Netanyahu’s administration is determined to eliminate Hamas from the region.