Conflict Alerts

Conflict Alerts # 634, 17 May 2024

Catalonia and the Spain Elections: Decline of pro-independence voices
Neha Tresa George

In the news
On 12 May, Catalonia in Spain witnessed the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) led by Salvador Illa emerge victorious with 42 seats, with the pro-independence parties taking a backseat for the first time in a decade in the regional elections.
Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez congratulated Illa for the "historic result." In a post on X, Sanchez said it would mark the beginning of "a new era in Catalonia."

Issues at large
First, a brief note on Catalonia. Within Spain, the region has its language and distinctive traditions and a population of almost 7.5 million. It is also the richest and one of the most vital parts of Spain. Catalan separatism emerged in the 1850s with Renaixenca (rebirth), a movement to revive Catalan as a living language with its press and theatre. Even though the region attained a slight autonomy by 1913, Miguel Primo de Rivera who was the dictator of Spain repealed it in 1925. His policy led to the formation of a left-wing coalition party, the Esquerra Republicana, which attained victory in the municipal elections of 1931. The formation of the pro-autonomy Convergence and Union party in 1978 served as a political force for Catalonia. With the attainment of full autonomy in 1979, the region was granted “nation” status in 2006. The autonomy statute was struck down in 2010 when Spain’s constitutional government ruled that Catalans constituted a “nationality” but not, a “nation.”

Second, the emergence of the Catalan independence movement and separatism. Catalans who were already frustrated at the eurozone debt crisis were motivated by Scotland’s referendum on independence from the United Kingdom in 2014. Following a symbolic referendum led by the Convergence and Union leader Artur Mas, which Spain immediately challenged, the separatists won the regional elections in 2015. Tensions reached its peak in 2017 when the government led by Carles Puigdemont moved ahead with an illegal independence referendum which declared independence for the Catalan Republic.

Third, shift in people’s demand. Although Madrid had dissolved the parliament and called for a snap election after the referendum in 2017, separatists won by a slim majority, and the newly elected President vowed to continue fighting for independence. Puigdemont, the then President, had fled the region in fear of the charges against him with several others as they were alleged for their seditious policies. The widespread protests and police response led to one of the worst street violence in Spain. Nevertheless, the government, before the elections of 2024 led by Pere Aragonès, made the people shift their demands to improvements in social services rather than independence due to the drought-prone conditions and the increasing cost of living during his time.

Fourth, the rise of Pedro Sanchez. The Prime Minister of Spain who came to power leading a vote of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy in 2018 has a conciliatory approach towards Catalonia as he had received the backing of the pro-independence party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya to secure his position. Sanchez was observed to be acceding to the demands of Junts pel Sí, the political party led by Puigdemont by brokering an amnesty deal that would deprive them of their charges under the scope for “peaceful coexistence” in Catalonia. Whereas Puigdemont who had fled the region in fear of the charges against him,  intends to return Spain once the amnesty proposal becomes law. Despite several protests regarding the proposal in the country, Sanchez stood firm as the Junts have agreed to back his position in favour of it. Although the bill got approved in the lower house of Parliament, the upper house stalled it delaying its implementation. The election results indicated that Sanchez’s high-risk amnesty proposal has served its purpose by reducing the separatist tensions while at the same time helping to normalize Spanish-Catalan relations. The bill also plays a major role in diminishing the demand for independence among the people.

In perspective
First, the election results indicate a major gain for the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sanchez; the party still needs 68 out of the 135 seats to form a government. To secure its position, the Socialist Party might have to seek support from the pro-independence parties of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan Republican Left) and the Left Wing Comuns. If a consensus is not reached, Catalans will again be summoned to vote in October.

Second, the state of the Catalan independence movement. The election results might indicate that Catalonia had gone cold on independence. With the amnesty bill’s proposal, Sanchez has managed to neutralize the separatist tendencies along with an improvement in Spanish-Catalan relations. Moreover, the realisation of severing ties with the EU also played a huge role in the results. According to experts, independence is no longer “a top priority for many voters”. The reason for this shift might be the discontent with the pro-independence parties and their governments.

November 2024 | Conflict Alert # 683
Sudan: A prolonged war and failed mediations
November 2024 | Conflict Alert # 681
Trump and the Conflict in the Middle East
November 2024 | Conflict Alert # 680
Spain: Devastating Floods and its Aftermath

November 2024 | Conflict Alert # 679
India-China Border Disengagement 
October 2024 | Conflict Alert # 677
Continuing Israel-Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas Conflict
October 2024 | Conflict Alert # 675
The Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas War in the Middle East
October 2024 | Conflict Alert # 674
Sudan: SAF’s bid to recapture Khartoum
September 2024 | Conflict Alert # 672
Israel’s new phase of war against Hezbollah 

September 2024 | Conflict Alert # 671
Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk
September 2024 | Conflict Alert # 670
Sudan: The war, famine and humanitarian crisis
September 2024 | Conflict Alert # 669
Ukraine: Russia’s Drone attacks
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 667
Brazil and Greece: Raging wildfires 
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 666
Canada’s 100 per cent tariff on Chinese EVs
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 665
Burkina Faso: JNIM expands toward Ouagadougou
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 663
Mpox Outbreak: Africa and Beyond
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 661
Riots and Protests in the UK: A Week After 
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 659
Nigeria: Protests over cost-of-living crisis
August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 656
Raging wildfires in North America

August 2024 | Conflict Alert # 653
Bangladesh: Three weeks of protests
July 2024 | Conflict Alert # 652
Protests in Kenya: Into the fifth week

July 2024 | Conflict Alert # 650
Suicide Bombings in Nigeria
July 2024 | Conflict Alert # 649
Afghanistan: The Doha Talks with the Taliban
June 2024 | Conflict Alert # 645
Israel: The conflict with Hezbollah intensifies 
June 2024 | Conflict Alert # 643
Israel: Challenges to Netanyahu’s War
May 2024 | Conflict Alert # 631
Australia: Protests against gender violence

April 2024 | Conflict Alert # 625
Sudan: One Year of Civil War
April 2024 | Conflict Alert # 624
The Middle East: Steady Escalation 
April 2024 | Conflict Alert # 621
30 years after the Rwandan Genocide
March 2024 | Conflict Alert # 620
Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K): A profile
March 2024 | Conflict Alert # 619
Russia: ISIS terror attack in Moscow

March 2024 | Conflict Alert # 618
Gaza: Finally, a UN Security Council Resolution
March 2024 | Conflict Alert # 617
Haiti: Continuing political instability 
March 2024 | Conflict Alert # 614
Continuing Kidnappings in Nigeria
March 2024 | Conflict Alert # 613
The War in Gaza: The Elusive Search for a Ceasefire
February 2024 | Conflict Alert # 606
Ukraine: The Battle for Avdiivka
February 2024 | Conflict Alert # 605
War expands to Rafah, the border town
February 2024 | Conflict Alert # 604
Senegal: Protests amidst the postponement of elections
February 2024 | Conflict Alert # 601
UNRWA relief fund shutdown exacerbates crises
January 2024 | Conflict Alert # 600
Haiti: Continuing Violence and Kidnappings 
January 2024 | Conflict Alert # 599
The Red Sea Crisis: Attacks and Counter Attacks

January 2024 | Conflict Alert # 597
Middle East: Blinken's Fourth Visit
March 2023 | Conflict Alert # 595
Israel-Palestine: Return of violence

March 2023 | Conflict Alert # 594
Ukraine: Battle for Bakhmut
February 2023 | Conflict Alert # 591
France: Continued protests against pension reform

February 2023 | Conflict Alert # 588
US: Air Force shoots down Chinese balloon
January 2023 | Conflict Alert # 586
Israel: Protests against proposed judicial reforms
January 2023 | Conflict Alert # 585
Sweden: Anti-Islamic protests
January 2023 | Conflict Alert # 583
Peru: Fresh protests and continuing political crisis

January 2023 | Conflict Alert # 577
Ukraine: A new military push, worsening the situation
December 2022 | Conflict Alert # 576
The EU: The new gas price capping regulation
December 2022 | Conflict Alert # 573
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
December 2022 | Conflict Alert # 572
Pakistan: TTP ends ceasefire with the government
November 2022 | Conflict Alert # 568
Ukraine: The Russian withdrawal from Kherson
November 2022 | Conflict Alert # 567
Pakistan: The assassination attempt on Imran Khan

October 2022 | Conflict Alert # 563
Global Hunger Index: Four Takeaways

October 2022 | Conflict Alert # 561
Haiti: Gang violence and beyond
October 2022 | Conflict Alert # 560
Reducing Inequality Index 2022: Three Takeaways
October 2022 | Conflict Alert # 559
China: UNHRC proceeding on Xinjiang

September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 556
Iran: Protests spark against hijab rules
September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 555
EU's food waste 2022: Three takeaways

September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 553
Global Estimates of Modern Slavery 2021: Six takeaways
September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 551
Ukraine: Counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson

September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 550
The UN report on Xinjiang: Four Takeaways
September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 549
Drought in Europe, August 2022: Four Takeaways
September 2022 | Conflict Alert # 547
Iraq: Al-Sadr Withdraws, Protests Intensify

August 2022 | Conflict Alert # 546
Europe: Heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts
August 2022 | Conflict Alert # 539
Iraq: The escalating political crisis

July 2022 | Conflict Alert # 536
The US: Wildfires in California, again
July 2022 | Conflict Alert # 531
Sudan: Military steps down, following protests

July 2022 | Conflict Alert # 530
Sri Lanka: Continuing economic crisis
July 2022 | Conflict Alert # 527
Libya: The continuing political stalemate

May 2022 | Conflict Alert # 516
The US: Another school attack kills 19 children
May 2022 | Conflict Alert # 512
Ukraine: 75 days of the war
May 2022 | Conflict Alert # 511
Ethiopia: Rising communal tensions

May 2022 | Conflict Alert # 510
Sri Lanka: Political crisis intensifies
April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 507
Afghanistan: The rise of sectarian violence

April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 506
Mexico: Protests over continuing femicides
April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 501
Israel: Al-Aqsa Mosque raids
April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 500
Ukraine: The battle for Donbas
April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 499
Russia: The strategic shift from Kyiv to the Donbas

April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 498
Nigeria: Over 100 killed in another gunmen attack
April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 497
Ukraine: Russia's battle for Mariupol
April 2022 | Conflict Alert # 496
Yemen: Finally, a ceasefire
March 2022 | Conflict Alert # 491
The worsening economic crisis in Sri Lanka

March 2022 | Conflict Alert # 488
Russia’s Ukraine Invasion: One Week Later
February 2022 | Conflict Alert # 486
Russia’s Ukraine salami slicing
February 2022 | Conflict Alert # 485
Libya: With two Prime Ministers, a new political crisis
February 2022 | Conflict Alert # 481
Canada: Freedom convoys and a new wave of protests
February 2022 | Conflict Alert # 478
Myanmar: One year after the coup
January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 477
Syria: The ISIS attack on a prison
January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 476
Yemen: The warzone expands in the Houthi-UAE face-off
January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 475
Burkina Faso: Another coup in Africa

January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 474
France: New round of protests over COVID-19 passes
January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 472
Ukraine: Threat of Russian invasion
January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 470
Iran: Two years after Qasem Soleimani
January 2022 | Conflict Alert # 468
Kazakhstan: Bloody unrest and a brutal crackdown
December 2021 | Conflict Alert # 466
COVID-19: Omicron rapidly spreads across countries
December 2021 | Conflict Alert # 464
Ukraine: The West warns Russia over Ukrainian aggression
December 2021 | Conflict Alert # 463
China: 12 million missing children

November 2021 | Conflict Alert # 459
Europe: Restrictions lead to Widespread Protests

November 2021 | Conflict Alert # 457
Cuba: Between bouts of demonstrations
November 2021 | Conflict Alert # 454
Pakistan: A month-long ceasefire with the TTP

October 2021 | Conflict Alert # 447
The US: Protests against the Texas anti-abortion law
October 2021 | Conflict Alert # 444
Brazil: Anti-Bolsonaro protests across the country
September 2021 | Conflict Alert # 441
Yemen: Houthis continue to capture territories
September 2021 | Conflict Alert # 439
Europe: Pride Marches in Serbia and Ukraine
September 2021 | Conflict Alert # 437
Brazil: Protestors call for the impeachment of Bolsonaro
September 2021 | Conflict Alert # 435
Guinea: Another coup in Africa
September 2021 | Conflict Alert # 431
Climate Change: Hurricane Ida destructs the US Gulf Coast
August 2021 | Conflict Alert # 422
Europe: Measures to curb pandemic trigger protests

August 2021 | Conflict Alert # 418
Peru: Protests a sign of challenges facing Castillo

July 2021 | Conflict Alert # 411
Wildfires: Siberia to the US
July 2021 | Conflict Alert # 409
Bosnia: 26 years after the Srebrenica Massacre
July 2021 | Conflict Alert # 405
Colombia: Two months of protests
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 399
Myanmar: New UNGA resolution
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 397
Myanmar: The Aung San Suu Kyi trial begins
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 390
Burkina Faso: Another massacre in Africa

June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 386
Nigeria: Another mass abduction grips Niger state

June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 385
Colombia: The protests continue
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 382
Israel-Hamas ceasefire: The long road to peace

May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 380
Colombia: Three weeks of protests
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 378
Israel-Palestine: Who wants what?

May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 374
Yemen: The Battle for Marib rages on

April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 371
Pakistan: Meetings with Afghan leaders
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 369
Israel-Syria: Continuing Missile Strikes
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 358
India: Another Maoist attack in Chhattisgarh

April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 356
Global Gender Gap Report 2021: Main Takeaways
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 353
Niger: 137 massacred in the latest attack by gunmen
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 351
Yemen: Saudi Arabia announces ceasefire

March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 347
Australia: Women fight against sexual violence 

March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 345
The US: The George Floyd trial begins
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 340
Syria: UN report calls for a complete ceasefire
February 2021 | Conflict Alert # 333
South Korea: The 'Comfort Women' issue returns to haunt
January 2021 | Conflict Alert # 222
Russia: Pro-Navalny protests turn anti-government 
January 2021 | Conflict Alert # 220
COVID-19: The Vaccine Wars
December 2020 | Conflict Alert # 200
India: Farmers' protests intensify as deadlock persists
November 2020 | Conflict Alert # 191
Pakistan: Anti-French protests called off

October 2020 | Conflict Alert # 174
Bangladesh: Protests intensify against sexual violence
October 2020 | Conflict Alert # 167
India crosses 6 million-mark in COVID-19 cases

September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 166
Pakistan: The persisting polio problem
September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 156
Pakistan: Targeted Violence continues in Waziristan
September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 154
The anti-Racist Protests in the US: Between
August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 148
Israel and UAE normalize relations
August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 146
Bolivia: Protests against the Election postponement
August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 138
In Iraq, the protestors return to the streets 

July 2020 | Conflict Alert # 118
J&K: Geelani's Exit and Continuing Violence

June 2020 | Conflict Alert # 105
Black Lives Matter brings the US to its knees
May 2020 | Conflict Alert # 86
Libya: Khalifa Haftar announces ceasefire 

May 2020 | Conflict Alert # 81
India: The surge in violence in J&K
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 71
Afghanistan: 300 Taliban prisoners released
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 67
Syria: New UN Report on Idlib
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 64
A lethal impact on the Refugee/Migrant Camps 
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 51
Coronavirus & China: Fall in numbers 
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 47
Coronavirus & Nepal: In the second stage, cancels
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 44
Two Presidents in Afghanistan
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 42
'Aurat March': A New beginning across Pakistan 

March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 38
Sri Lanka withdraws from 30/1 Geneva Resolution

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 35
A ceasefire between Israel, Islamic Jihad in Gaza
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 34
Libya: rivals withdraw from Geneva peace talks

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 33
India: Violence in Delhi
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 32
Afghanistan: Seven Days of Peace
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 31
Climate Change Fallouts: Impacts the Bird population
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 28
Pakistan: Court convicts LeT founder Hafiz Saeed
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 27
Pakistan: Suicide terrorism returns to haunt Quetta
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 26
Afghanistan: The US-Taliban Seven Day Deal

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 24
Israel: Violence in post  Trump-deal
January 2020 | Conflict Alert # 20
Kenya: Al Shabab and a week of killings
December 2019 | Conflict Alert # 19
Citizenship Amendment Bill:2019
November 2019 | Conflict Alert # 18
Lebanon: PM Hariri quits, but protests continue 

October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 16
Bolivian unrest
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 15
Hundreds protest in Haiti
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 14
Protests rock Chile

October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 13
Hong Kong Violence: A divide within
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 12
Spain: The trouble in Catalonia
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 11
Turkey's Offensive in Syria
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 9
Africa to be Polio Free
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 7
Myanmar: Teenage girls traded as brides to China
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 6
Moscow Protests: Thousands rally in Moscow

August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 3
Jordan Restores diplomatic ties with Qatar