Conflict Alerts # 637, 31 May 2024
Ayan Datta In the news
On 26 May, Voice of America (VOA) reported anti-government protests in Armenia against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's decision on territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. Bagrat Galstanyan, a church leader from the Tavush region, led the protests. VOA quoted Galstanyan as telling the crowd that Yerevan should demarcate the border after holding a referendum and signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. He also demanded Pashinyan's impeachment.
On 24 May, Armenia returned four border villages it captured from Azerbaijan during the 1990s. On 25 May, Reuters reported that Azerbaijan took control of the four villages on the border with Armenia under an agreement with Pashinyan's government.
On 24 May, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan argued that the decision "is a sole guarantee for the very existence of the Armenian republic within its internationally recognized and legitimate frontier." He said the "new demarcation" enhances Armenia's "security and stability."
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. It has been raging since the late 1980s. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive on Armenia-occupied territories and captured all the Armenia-occupied territories outside Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2022, Azerbaijan again clashed with Armenian forces and occupied parts of Armenia's territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched another offensive, occupying the whole of Nagorno Karabakh. The local government in Nagorno-Karabakh, earlier known as the Artsakh Republic (backed by Armenia), was dissolved by the end of 2023. Following the above, around 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.
Second, Armenia's latest decision to hand over the four villages. The ceded villages are in the Tavush region and have been uninhabited for over 30 years. However, the ceded region contains a highway connecting Yerevan with the Armenia-Georgia border and a gas pipeline. Yerevan's decision comes as part of an ongoing peace process with Baku.
Third, the public outcry inside Armenia against the government's decision. Galstanyan, a church leader in the region, leads the protests. He has been mobilizing Armenians to protest and block public spaces in Yerevan. The protestors argue that Pashinyan has betrayed the nation by unilaterally giving up the territory. The residents of the Tavush region, outside the four villages that were ceded, fear being cut off from the rest of Armenia.
In perspective
First, the regional political situation is unfavourable to Armenia. Since the 1990s, the Azeri leadership has used its oil wealth to strengthen its military. Consequently, Azerbaijan enjoys considerable military advantages over Armenia. Moscow's failure to defend Yerevan's interests has strengthened that advantage. Turkey, Azerbaijan's close partner, is rising as a regional power. Israel supplies advanced weaponry to Azerbaijan. After the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Europe has become dependent on Azerbaijan for oil and natural gas. On the contrary, Russia, Armenia's supposed security guarantor, is bogged down in Ukraine. Iran, another traditional partner to Armenia, is bogged down with Israel and internal instability. Besides, when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia in 2023, US diplomats engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Baku and Yerevan to bring a peaceful resolution. However, the US and Russia treat the protests as a matter of Armenia's internal affairs. For these reasons, the region's balance of power is deeply unfavourable for Armenia.
Second, Pashinyan stands to benefit by conceding the disputed pockets. He has adopted a strategy of demarcation, withdrawal, and territorial consolidation. Pashinyan is pursuing peace at the expense of victory. However, these concessions, coupled with the favourable balance of power, may embolden Azerbaijan to pursue further territorial gains against Armenia.
Third, the Armenian public's perception of the situation contradicts Armenia's power position. Armenia has controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since 1992. Armenia's people fought two wars against Azerbaijan for these territories. The imperative to preserve territorial integrity is deep-seated in Armenians' minds. Pashinyan's concessions may be a necessary act of pragmatism. However, protestors argue that he has betrayed the nation. For them, Nagorno-Karabakh and the conceded pockets are inviolable Armenian territory. If Galstanyan comes to power, then he and the Galstanyan-led “Tavush for the Homeland” movement may push Yerevan's foreign policy towards uncompromising and revanchist directions.