Conflict Alerts # 638, 31 May 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 29 May, South Africa held its national and provincial elections. It was the seventh election since the end of the apartheid regime in 1994. This year, South Africa also marks 30 years since the first inclusive democratic elections that ended the Apartheid regime.
The polls were reported to be relatively peaceful. On 31 May, the results of 50 per cent of the polls were declared, with the African National Congress (ANC) leading with 42 per cent, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 23 per cent. Meanwhile, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EEF) secured ten per cent and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) with 11 per cent. Officially, the results will be declared on 2 June.
Issues at large
First, a background to South Africa's elections. In 1994, all South Africans voted for the first time, marking the end of the apartheid. Since 1994, it had six elections, all won by the ANC. There were 27 million registered voters this year, while in the previous elections (held in 2019), it was 26 million. The African National Congress (ANC) led by current President Cyril Ramaphosa, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) under John Steenhuisen, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema and Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto we Sizwe party are the major parties running this year.
Second, the declining popularity of the ANC. Popular support for the ANC took a swift downturn from 70 per cent in 2004 to 57 per cent in 2019. It was the first time the party secured votes below 60 per cent. Most opinion polls say that this year, the party might not receive a 50 per cent vote to form a single majority government. According to an opinion poll by market research firm Ipsos, the ANC's support is currently at 40.2 per cent. The continuing debate on racial inequalities, increasing unemployment, poverty, crime rates, power outages, and corruption are major issues that have caused the declining popularity of the ANC. The majority of ANC's popular leaders are known for corruption. Current President Cyril Ramphosa was accused of corruption in 2022 after USD 580,000 of cash was found in a sofa on his game farm, with the money later stolen by robbers. Additionally, several popular leaders, including former President Jacob Zuma, left the party to form one of their own, which has divided the ANC's votes.
Third, the debate on continuing apartheid. Despite the ANC's credentials for ending the apartheid, the party's 30-year rule failed to eradicate racial inequality. It is institutionalized now through a new form of economic apartheid. The poor and vulnerable, who are dominantly black and were promised land and house reformation during the 90s by ANC, are pushed to the peripheries of Cape Town. According to OCHR, the country faces unequal access to education and pay, segregated communities, and economic disparities, which the institutions and the society reinforce. In 2022, the World Bank ranked South Africa as the most unequal country in the world, wherein the majority of the inequalities are on racial lines.
Fourth, socio-economic issues. In South Africa, ten per cent of the affluent population holds 85 per cent of the country's wealth. According to the World Inequality Lab data, although the top black population has outnumbered the white population among the ten per cent, the wealth of the poor has not increased. Besides, the unemployment rate in the country has reached 37 per cent. According to Statista, South Africa has the highest crime index of 75.4, with 3,934 women and 1,122 children murdered between April 2022 and March 2023. The country also struggles with a prolonged electricity crisis, dragging the economy. The domestic consumers face a 12-hour outages every day.
In perspective
The peaceful nature of the elections implies success. However, the state of democracy is in question. The inequality, crime, and corruption rates, added to failed checks and balances, point to an inefficient democracy. This year's elections are also a bigger test for the ANC. Although existing socio-economic issues have slightly declined in popularity, the ANC has retained its charm.
The majority of the population thinks highly of the party which led the apartheid movement. However, the declining popularity would also mean that the young and the future generations are immune to the party's Apartheid card. As it is likely that the ANC will lose a single majority, the party should get ready for a coalition. A coalition with any major opposition parties would be a hard choice for the ANC, considering those parties' antagonism towards the party. Forming a coalition with multiple minor parties will take a lot of work. Besides, South Africa's constitution does not provide provisions for forming a coalition. The new government would be in a larger crisis in forming and running a coalition.