Conflict Alerts # 648, 12 July 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 11 July, Kenyan President William Ruto dissolved the cabinet following the protests which have been ongoing since the end of June. Ruto claimed that the move came after "reflection, listening to Kenyans, and after holistic appraisal of my cabinet."
On 2 July, Kenyan police fired tear gas to disperse the protesters in the capital Nairobi. The new round of protests erupted after President William Ruto promised to withdraw the controversial financial bill on 28 June. The protesters are demanding Ruto's resignation.
On 3 July, the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) reported that at least 270 people were arrested for criminal rampage during the protests. It stated: "The DCI has further deployed scrupulous investigators across the affected regions to pursue suspects captured on CCTV cameras and mobile phone recordings violently robbing, stealing and destroying properties and businesses of innocent citizens."
The same day, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) reported that 39 people had been killed during the violent protests across the country.
On 1 July, Ruto said that the country will have to further depend on borrowing USD Seven billion to "be able to run our government." He stated: "I have been working very hard to pull Kenya out of a debt trap. It is very easy for us, as a country to say: 'Let us reject the financial bill.' That is fine and I have graciously said we will drop the financial bill. But it will have huge consequences."
On 29 June, one of the protesters commented: "I am not afraid to die, many have died before us. Many more will die but we have to stand up for our generation who are being taken for fools by the politicians."
Issues at large
First, expansion and intensification of protests in Kenya. The protests began in early June against a financial bill to increase taxes to address the debt crisis of USD 80 billion. Although Ruto withdrew the bill, the protests continued. What began as a protest against the tax hike is currently over public grievances, corruption, misgovernance and a demand for Ruto's resignation. What started in the capital (Nairobi) has expanded to 35 of Kenya's 47 counties. They have cut across geographic, social and ethnic landscapes. The protesters have been chanting, "Ruto must go." They are demanding the police be held accountable for their brutality during the previous week's protests, which killed 39 people. Many fear that Ruto could still sign the bill before it expires next week. The anger also amounts to a year-long public discontent against Ruto's series of tax hikes and financial management since he came to power.
Second, new faces of protest. Traditionally, Kenyan protests have been led by elites. They often were on ethnic lines; the minority against the majority over marginalisation. Several protests end up in power-sharing deals between the leadership and a few benefits to the protesters. However, this time, protests are led by the younger generation. Uniquely, they are not supported by any political parties. They were mobilised through social media without any leadership. Hashtags of #OccupyPrliament, #RutoMustGo and #RejectBudgetCorruption were trending on social media. On TikTok, many influencers circulated videos highlighting the harm government policies were causing.
Third, President Ruto's reponse. Ruto's administration has placed its response between repression and accommodation. Police used tear gas and live ammunition after protesters set fire to the parliament house, causing several deaths. They continue to use tear gas to disperse the protesters. KNCHR reported 32 cases of "enforced or involuntary disappearance" and 627 arrests. Meanwhile, Ruto, on 26 June, promised talks with protesters, stating that "I run a government, but I also lead people, and the people have spoken."
Fourth, the international response. There were swift international responses at the initial stage. The previous week, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concerns over the deaths of the protestors. The AU called on the stakeholders to hold dialogues on the issues. The US, which lately designated Kenya as its non-NATO ally, condemned the violence and urged to restore order.
In perspective
The protests have expanded in terms of geography and intensity. However, they are not organised but fragmented, implying a likely slow death unless proper leadership takes over. Despite this, Ruto's withdrawal of the bill did too little to contain the protests. The protesters demand accountable governance and Ruto's resignation. Ruto's double stance by violently suppressing the protests while maintaining the rhetoric of "the people have spoken" was received with scepticism. The public has perceived Ruto's latest statement about the debt crisis and money requirement to run the government as more of a threat; a threat to force the public to agree to the bill.
International response to the violence seems limited to the initial week. The second phase of the protest received a silent response.
African countries are known for their extraordinary success of mass mobilisation and protest movements- the Arab Spring in 2011, the Sudanese Revolution in 2019, the #ZumaMustFall protests in South Africa in 2020, and the #EndSARS protests in Nigeria in 2020. They have always been inclusive beyond the class, ethnic, regional and religious divides. They recorded an immediate success. All of them were born and grown through social media. Although the long-term success of African protest movements is debated, the immediate success implies the capacity to mobilise the masses inclusively. It is yet to see how Kenyan protests will unfold. The potential for divisions and differences is high without organised leadership, implying a major challenge.