Conflict Alerts # 652, 26 July 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 19 July, Kenyan President William Ruto announced plans for a "broad-based government" following the continuing anti-government protests that began on 20 June. He announced 11 appointments to the new cabinet, including four opposition leaders. Six of them, including the interior, defence, environment and lands ministers, were reappointed from the previous cabinet sacked on 11 July. Ruto stated: “The crisis has presented us with a great opportunity as a nation to craft a broad-based and inclusive citizen coalition for national transformation and progress made up of Kenyans from all walks of life. Consequently, I have started the process of forming a new broad-based cabinet to assist in driving the urgently needed and irreversible transformation of our country.”
On the same day, the protesters rejected the new appointments posting "rejected" written over the list. Meanwhile, the opposition Azimo coalition stated: “This is a betrayal of the Kenyan people, particularly the Gen Z and millennials who have paid the ultimate price to rid this country of the disastrous Kenya Kwanza regime.”
Issues at large
First, continuing protests, despite the withdrawal of the controversial financial bill. The protests began on 25 June against the controversial tax hike bill. The protests continued even after Ruto scrapped the financial bill. The protests led by the young generation or the Gen-Zs have continued for five weeks without a lull. The second round of protest was triggered when security forces used live ammunition to disperse the protesters who set fire to the premises of the parliament. The violence killed 39 people. They demanded the police to be held accountable for the deaths. According to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, more than 50 people have been killed and 628 arrested so far in the violent protests. By the third week, the protests became anti-government, demanding Ruto to resign.
Second, the expansion of protests in terms of geography, intensity and actors. The protests began in the capital Nairobi. However, they have spread across the country reaching the outskirts including the southern coastal town of Mombasa. The protesters demand Ruto's resignation. Protests were reported in at least 23 of Kenya's 47 counties. Although fragmented, they have intensified with mass mobilisation, violence, and disruption of daily business. Kenya’s young generation began the protests through social media without political backing. Journalists, labour unions, political parties, and the Kenyan law society directly or indirectly support the protests.
Third, the cause, demands and response. Initially, the protests were against the financial bill to increase taxes. It was also an expression of long-standing discontent against Ruto's financial management and frequent tax increases since he came to power. However, the initial cause and demand diverted and expanded after Ruto withdrew the bill. It shifted to anti-government protests over public grievances, brutal police response, corruption, misgovernance and a demand for Ruto's resignation. Meanwhile, Ruto has placed his response in between support and suppression. He promised to talk with the protesters and praised the young generation for raising their voices. However, the police have been using tear gas, live ammunition, and arbitrary arrests to contain the protests.
Fourth, the spillover effect. The events inspire other democracies in Africa. In Uganda, the younger generation mobilised a march on 23 July through social media, demanding an end to corruption. The protesters wore t-shirts portraying “speaker must resign” and spread the hashtag #StopCorruption.
In perspective
The protests appear to be intensifying. However, with disoriented demands and fragmented participation, they will likely lose their integrity. Initially, mass protests made an impact, forcing Ruto to withdraw the bill. However, the protests appear to be failing now. The new cabinet and inclusion of opposition figures are less likely to calm down the protests. However, protests could disperse with a lack of leadership and concrete demands.
Kenyan protests successfully impacted on African youth and their ability to mobilise the masses. Ugandan youth have followed the Kenyan protests. Several other illiberal democracies in the continent are likely to organise similar protests. The authorities in Kenya and Uganda relied on violent methods to contain the protests, implying a possible continuity of violence alongside protests across the region.
Although the protests gained widespread international media attention, regional and international actors made limited comments except for the initial ones. The absence of a response from the regional and international community implies their reluctance to support the protests and take a stance against the authorities.