Conflict Alerts # 657, 8 August 2024
Ayan Datta In the news
On 8 August, Mohammed Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, was sworn in as the leader of Bangladesh's interim government. Following his oath-taking ceremony, he stated: "Tomorrow, with the rising sun, democracy, justice, human rights, and full freedom of fearless expression will be enjoyed by all, regardless of party affiliation. That is our goal. I will uphold, support and protect the constitution and will perform my duties sincerely.”
On 7 August, the US and the UK refused political asylum to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
On 6 August, Sahabuddin dissolved Bangladesh’s parliament and said he would free imprisoned student protesters. On the same day, a Dhaka court released over 1,000 members of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, including BNP head Khaleda Zia and the Jamaat’s Secretary General, Mia Golam Parwar. Separately, The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) stated that protesters vandalised 200-300 Hindu homes and 15-20 temples from 5 to 6 August, injuring 40 people.
On the same day, India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar expressed worry that “minorities, their businesses and temples also came under attack.” Additionally, the US Department of State expressed concern at violence against “religious or political groups” and “politics and law enforcement” and added that “the United States will continue to support Bangladesh's democratic aspirations and promote respect for human rights.”
On 5 August, Hasina resigned as Prime Minister and left the country following massive protests. On the same day, Hasina arrived at India’s Hindon airbase and met Jaishankar and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Separately, protesters ransacked Ganabhaban and set fire to the residences and properties of multiple Awami League (AL) leaders, killing 25 people.
Issues at large
First, the escalation from protests to vandalism and violence. Although Students Against Discrimination (SAD) began as a movement for quota reform, the protesters resorted to vandalism and violence after Hasina’s departure. Protesters vandalised AL offices, monuments, police stations and other public property. Furthermore, they targeted AL leaders, activists and minorities. While police and the military asked SAD leaders to call for peace, the latter said that the unrest was a spontaneous expression of people’s grievances against Hasina’s 15-year-long monopoly over the country’s political system.
Second, a political profile on Muhammad Yunus. In 2006, Yunus received the Nobel Peace Prize for founding Grameen Bank, which used micro-credit to alleviate Bangladesh’s rural poverty. In 2007, the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Moeen Ahmed, staged a coup. Later that year, Yunus stated that he wanted to launch a new political party called Nagorik Shakti (meaning “Citizen’s Power”), and the BBC reported that the army supported him as a counter against Hasina. However, in May 2007, Yunus abandoned his political aspirations after meeting the army-backed President, Fakhruddin Ahmed. According to Al Jazeera, his relations with Hasina, which had been warm until 2007, began worsening after he stated his political ambitions. After Hasina’s rise to power in 2009, the government filed multiple cases against Yunus, eventually leading to his removal from the Bank in 2013. In 2024, he was sentenced to six months in prison. Although the conviction was overturned, Yunus left the country. According to the New York Times and BBC, Hasina tried to suppress Yunus because of his political ambitions and support for him among the army and Western leaders.
Third, the worsening state of minorities in Bangladesh. After Hasina’s departure, protesters targeted minority (mostly Hindu) families, properties and places of worship, highlighting the atrocities against the minorities in the country. The Daily Star reported that opposition groups, like Jamaat-e-Islami, see the Hindus as close to the Hasina government and, therefore, carry out revenge attacks against them. In 1972, Hindus were around 14 per cent of Bangladesh’s population, numbering around nine million. By 2022, their share in population had fallen to eight per cent. According to the Dhaka Tribune, Hindus have steadily left Bangladesh since 1971 because of religious persecution.
Fourth, growing regional instability in South Asia. According to the US Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index, South Asia has become an unstable region with multiple countries in crisis mode. This year, the Pakistan military grew its influence over the civilian government. Previously, in 2022, Sri Lanka suffered an economic crisis and mass protests. In 2021, the Taliban and Myanmar suffered regime changes.
In perspective
Hasina’s fall in a military coup marks a paradigm shift in Bangladeshi politics. Although Hasina has always positioned herself as the legatee of the country’s founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahaman, the youth and students are substantially Islamised and immune to her independence hero card. Hasina’s removal from power complicates India’s neighbourhood policy, with growing instability in South Asia and the role of the Jamaat-e-Islami in targeting minorities after Hasina’s departure. The military-backed interim government will face stiff challenges, including restoring law and order and reviving economic development.
More on this:
Vetriselvi Baskaran, "Bangladesh: Three weeks of protests," NIAS Conflict Weekly, 2 August 2024
Ayan Datta, "Bangladesh: Protests and Violence over Quota reform," The World This Week, 21 July 2024