Conflict Alerts # 659, 8 August 2024
Vetriselvi Baskaran In the news
On 4 August, President Bola Tinubu told the Nigerian protestors that he had “heard” their voices and urged them to call off the protests, end the “bloodshed” and that he is always ready for a dialogue.
On 2 August, Reuters reported that the Nigerian police were on red alert and sought assistance from the military as the protests against the cost-of-living crisis turned violent. It reported that at least three protestors were killed in northern Kaduna state on 1 August. However, Amnesty International claimed that at least 13 protestors were killed.
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the protests. Protests in Nigeria began on 1 August against the increasing cost of living, state negligence and worsening insecurity. The protestors were largely middle-class population, youngsters, and the “Take It Back Movement.” They listed 19-point demands to reform the country’s electoral system, the judiciary, and Tinubu’s economic policies. The protests drew participation from major cities including the capital Abuja, Lagos, Maiduguri, Kano, Kaduna, Benin City, Ibadan, Jos, Port Harcourt, Yenagoa, Gusau, and Gombe. It attracted young people, dissatisfied with government policies on education. The National Bureau of Statistics recorded inflation at 34.19 per cent in July. The food inflation surged to 40.87 per cent in July from 40.66 per cent in June. Tinubu’s economic reforms resulted in currency depreciation which caused a hunger crisis, as the imported food products became expensive. The World Bank reports that about 40.7 per cent of Nigerians live below the poverty level. As of 2024, Nigeria's unemployment rate is around 4.1 per cent. Additionally, rising insecurity issues including ransom kidnappings, Boko Haram insurgency and the farmer-herder clashes are adding woes.
Second, the government’s response to the protest. The government used teargas and live ammunition against the protesters. They implemented curfews and blocked several roads to contain the protests. Amnesty International reported that 13 protestors were killed. However, the police denied responsibility. At least 326 protestors have been arrested on the charges of arson and looting. President Tinubu defended his economic reforms that it reflected in the reduction of foreign debt from 97 per cent to 68 per cent in 2024.
Third, rising protests in Africa and its regional implications. 2024 saw protests in several African countries including Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. All revolved around widespread dissatisfaction with the government's performance, corruption, and negligence on social welfare. Successful Kenyan protests in July inspired people across Africa. On 22 July, the younger population staged anti-corruption protests in Uganda. In Ghana, civil society groups and youngsters protested against the increasing cost of living. In Mozambique, the opposition Democratic Alliance Coalition called for nationwide protests on 7 August against the party’s exclusion from the upcoming general election.
In perspective
First, protests are likely to continue. Tinubu remains defensive on his economic reforms. Unless Tinubu’s administration agrees to address the demands of the protesters, the protests are likely to continue. On the other hand, police crackdowns and the killing of protesters would intensify the protests and draw larger crowds. The successful protests in Kenya would serve as inspiration for protestors to press the government until their demands are met.
Second, increasing violence and the government’s response to the protests. Earlier protests that occurred in Nigeria have been met with violent responses from police and security forces, causing injuries and fatalities. Likewise, the current protests in Nigeria are drawn parallel to #EndSARS protests which broke out against the police crackdowns as they continue to loom over current demonstrations.
Third, protests are emerging as a way to address social issues. Africa is renowned for multiple protests. In recent days, protests in many countries succeeded. For instance, in Kenya, anti-government protests were accomplished by forcing the government to revoke the planned tax bills. Similarly, in June, Nigeria’s labour force protested against the minimum wage which resulted in negotiations with governments to further increase the minimum wage. This spillover impact caused the Nigerians to take the streets once again against the “bad governance.” This highlights the African perspective of choosing protests as a way to solve the issues.