Conflict Alerts # 665, 29 August 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 24 August, Africanews reported that an attack by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an armed group linked to al-Qaeda, killed nearly 100 people and injured 140 others in central Burkina Faso. The attack took place in the Barsalogho region.
On 25 August, al-Qaeda claimed the attack stating that it gained "total control over a militia position" in Barsalogho in Kaya, a region where security forces have been fighting jihadists to protect the capital Ouagadougou.
On the same day, Burkina Faso's Minister of Security Mahamadou Sana said that the government responded to the attack with ground and air support. He added: “We are not going to accept such barbarity on the territory.”
Issues at large
First, a profile of JNIM. JNIM was formed in 2017. Composed of four armed groups, Ansar Dine, al-Murabitun, the Macina Liberation Front and the Sahara Emirate subgroup of al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, JNIM aimed to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Sahel. It started its operations in Mali and later spread to Burkina Faso, Niger, and parts of Ghana, Ivory Coast, Benin and Togo. Abu al-Fadl, a Malian Tuareg rebel leader and the founder of Ansar Dine, is said to be the group's leader. The number of fighters is unclear. The group spread across northern Burkina Faso by exploiting social divisions in the regions under its control. It strengthened by acting as a government in these regions, addressing the local grievances, and appealing to several marginalised communities including the Tuareg and Fulani. They recruited fighters from these communities. The group funds their activities through ransom kidnappings, weapon smuggling, tax collection, and drug and human trafficking.
Second, increasing JNIM’s footholds and worsening insecurity in Burkina Faso. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), JNIM has been increasingly carrying out frequent attacks in Burkina Faso since 2017 and half of the country is under the control of the group. The group was responsible for more than half of the attacks, reportedly around 1,762. Its capacity has increased with the use of bombs, mortars, landmines and rockets. In February, it attacked a church and a mosque in Natioboani and Essakane villages, killing dozens. In the same month, Kamsilga, Soroe and Nodin villages were attacked, killing more than 170 people. Besides JNIM, groups linked to the Islamic State, including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and Islamic State's West Africa Province (ISWAP) are active in the country. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2023, Burkina Faso ranks at the top. The report says nearly 2,000 people were killed in 258 "terrorist attacks."
Third, insurgency beyond Burkina Faso. Ungoverned peripheries and porous borders of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali are the epicentre of all insurgent groups. Since the military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in the countries has doubled. Three countries rank top in the GTI 2023. Since August 2023, the Tuareg rebels are reportedly reemerging in Mali and Niger. On 26 August, 21 people were killed in Mali's Tinzaouaten region. The Tuareg coalition has claimed the attack. In July, the separatists killed 47 Malian soldiers and 84 Russian Wagner troops. Besides, the groups linked to al-Qaeda are gaining momentum in Northern Mali.
Fourth, ineffective national, regional and international response. At the national level, the security apparatus is less capacitated to recapture the regions under the control of insurgent groups. The groups’ unpredictable behaviour and infiltration into the local population make it hard for any productive response. At the regional level, in 2023, all three countries fell out of ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The formation of AES was a response to ECOWAS’ military intervention threat following the coup in Niger. The threat was allegedly backed by France. At the international level, Western forces are no longer welcome in all three countries. French, German, the US and the UN troops have left the region amidst increasing anti-West sentiments. Although Russian mercenaries have entered as an alternative, they have been unsuccessful in containing the spread of insurgency.
In perspective
JNIM seems to have captured vast areas of Burkina Faso. The military carried out the coup toppling the elected government over its incompetence in fighting insurgency. However, the coup government too has failed to address the issue. Besides, the military failed to replace governance institutions, leaving several regions ungoverned. This has given militant groups the leverage to take control of these regions and act as pseudo-government, appealing to the local population. Additionally, the withdrawal of the Western forces from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has given the insurgent groups the confidence to expand. It implies that JNIM and other insurgent groups would easily expand in these regions in the coming months. In the prospects, along with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger would likely see an increased number of deadly attacks which complements a devastating humanitarian crisis.