Conflict Alerts # 670, 12 September 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 11 September, the UNSC extended sanctions including an arms embargo on Sudan for another year.
On 9 September, BBC reported that at least 21 people were killed and 70 others were injured in a shelling in the city of Sennar. The Sudan Doctors Network blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and condemned the attack describing it as a "massacre" of civilians.
On 8 September, the Sudanese Armed Force (SAF) led government rejected the call by a UN fact-finding mission for the deployment of forces to protect civilians. The UN mission’s lead, Chande Othman, stated: “Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, it is imperative that an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians be deployed without delay."
On the same day, the SAF-led government described the UNHRC as a "political and illegal body" and referred to the recommendations by the mission as "a flagrant violation of their mandate."
On the same day, WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, visited the city of Port Sudan and called on the "world to wake up and help Sudan out of the nightmare it is living through." He added: "The scale of the emergency is shocking, as is the insufficient action being taken to curtail the conflict and respond to the suffering it is causing."
Issues at large
First, the state of war. The war has crossed 16 months and shows no signs of ending. According to the UN, it has killed more than 20 thousand and displaced more than ten million. The war between two rival military forces has spread to Bahri, Omdurman, Port Sudan, Sennai and the states of Darfur and Kordofan, apart from the capital city Khartoum. Both sides are carrying out frequent shelling. Until August, RSF dominated much of Khartoum, Omdurman, Wad Madani, Bahri and Darfur states. However, the attack frequency has increased after SAF started gaining pocket regions around the capital. Currently, SAF controls parts of Khartoum, Omdurman, and Port Sudan. The previous UN arms embargo has not stopped the flow of weapons to the country. UNHRC fact-finding mission this week reported on the warring parties using armed drones, anti-tank guided missiles, and truck-mounted rocket launchers, which are allegedly originating from China, Iran, Russia, Serbia and the UAE. Meanwhile, RSF and SAF are accused of carrying out human rights atrocities against civilians.
Second, failing international mediation. All diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire are failing. On 14 August, the latest round of US peace talks was held in Geneva, Switzerland. However, neither of the warring parties attended. SAF boycotted the meeting, blaming the RSF for not meeting the conditions of the Jeddah Declaration 2023, including the withdrawal of forces from civilian regions. RSF pulled out minutes before the talks began. The failed mediation in Geneva came after a series of peace talks in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and all failed. There were nine rounds of ceasefires; all of them failed at their primary phase.
Third, the worsening famine and humanitarian crises. In August, famine was declared in the Zamzam camp in Darfur which hosts nearly 500,000 IDPs. The UN-partnered IPC Famine Review Committee reported that 14 regions in the states of Greater Darfur, South and North Kordofan, and Jazeera face conditions similar to those in Zamzam. According to the latest UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) initiative, 25.6 million people, more than half of Sudan's population, face "crisis or worse" humanitarian conditions. Around 755,000 face phase five “catastrophic” conditions. The reach of humanitarian access to these regions is being disrupted and blocked by the warring sides. Meanwhile, recent heavy rains and floods have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis with the spread of cholera. According to Sudan Tribune, the outbreak has killed 242 people. The conflict has disrupted the health system and state responses to the humanitarian crisis.
In perspective
While the war is continuing without a break, the Sudanese state appears to be crumbling. The humanitarian crisis is evolving into a humanitarian disaster with a limited and restricted ground for international response. More than one year into the war, Sudanese people have started to live with it; so as the international attention to it. The international media attention to the war in Sudan has reduced significantly. It does not mean the war has slowed down, but war is being normalised. Initially, the US and Saudi Arabia were able to bring warring parties to the mediating table, but seldom they complied with the agreed commitments. Now, it seems both warring parties are reluctant and superficial about international efforts. The same efforts receive similar outputs. Maybe, it's time for the international community to rethink its strategies in reaching out to the war in Sudan.