Conflict Alerts # 672, 26 September 2024
Ayan Datta In the news
On 25 September, the US, Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK and Qatar jointly called for a “21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border” between Israel and Hezbollah. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that Lebanon’s government “must have full control of its weapons” throughout the country.” He supported “all efforts to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces” and the return of civilians to northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
On 24 September, Hezbollah fired 300 rockets into northern Israel’s Haifa, Safed, Nazareth, Yokne’am and Galilee regions. Separately, the IDF killed three Hezbollah commanders, including the armed group’s Head of Rocket and Missile Division Ibrahim Qubaisi.
On 23 September, the IDF conducted an airstrike in Beirut, targeting Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki. However, the attack failed. Separately, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, stated: “We are deepening our attacks in Lebanon, the sequence of operations continues, and will continue until we achieve our goal of returning the residents of the north” to their homes. On the same day, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel’s Haifa and Nazareth cities.
Separately, US Vice President Kamala Harris expressed her commitment to “prevent the conflict from escalating and reaching a diplomatic solution that would allow populations on both sides of the border.”
On 20 September, the IDF killed over 15 Hezbollah leaders in an airstrike in southern Beirut, including the Head of Hezbollah’s Operations Unit and Commander of its Radwan Forces, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ahmed Wahbi, who supervised the armed group’s missile attacks on Israel. Furthermore, the attack killed five Radwan Force Commanders, its Chief of Operations, Hassan Yussef Abad Alssatar and its Chief of Staff, Hussein Ahmad Dahraj. The IDF stated that the leaders were planning a ground invasion of Israel similar to Hamas’ 7 October attack.
Issues at large
First, Israel’s new phase of the war. Between October 2023 and December 2024, the ISF had four divisions (40,000-60,000) active in Gaza. With its massive ground operations, Israel rapidly destroyed Hamas as a conventional military force and compelled it to use irregular attacks and guerrilla tactics. However, during the same time, Hezbollah's attacks intensified, displacing 60,000 Israelis from the country’s northern border and necessitating a shift in Israel's strategic focus. In June 2024, Netanyahu declared the most intense phase of the Gaza war over and shifted focus to Hezbollah. Consequently, only 10,000 Israeli soldiers are currently active in Gaza. On 17 September, Israel's Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (known popularly as the Mossad) conducted explosions of thousands of Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies, killing 12 leaders and injuring 27,000. On 18 September, Israel made the shift official, with Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant stating that the IDF was shifting "forces, resources, and energy" towards the Hezbollah front.
Second, the US-Israel-Hezbollah conflict over ceasefires and the return of displaced people. For the US and its European and Arab partners, Israel and Hezbollah should agree to a 21-day ceasefire, Hezbollah should retreat from the Israel-Lebanon border; the Lebanese Armed Forces should enter southern Lebanon to act as a buffer, and the peacekeepers of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) should be strengthened, and displaced civilians on both sides (80,000 in Lebanon and 60,000 from Israel) to return to their homes. For Hezbollah, there shall be no ceasefire until Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hamas. For Israel, Hezbollah shall be pushed back at least up to the Litani River (20 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border) through intensification and expansion of attacks.
Third, the international response. The UN's position is based on Security Council Resolutions 1052 and 1701, which were adopted during the previous Israel-Lebanon wars of 1996 and 2006, which represent the global consensus on resolving the conflict. For the UN, Israel should stop its attacks, Lebanon’s government should disarm Hezbollah, and Lebanon’s Armed Forces, and UNFIL troops should be strengthened through international efforts.
In perspective
First, Hezbollah is weakened but will survive as a military formation. Although Israel successfully destroyed Hezbollah’s military chain of command, the armed group continues to have missile and rocket launching capabilities. Furthermore, Hezbollah enjoys massive support in Lebanon’s Shia-dominated south, where it uses the region's mountainous, heavily forested terrain and civilian homes to conceal its weaponry.
Second, the elusive ceasefire and Isarel’s Hezbollah strategy. While the US wants Israel and Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, the latter refuses to comply until Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Gaza. Israel, on the other hand, has rejected both the US and Hezbollah proposals and adopted a strategy of de-escalation through gradual escalation, which is likely to fail given Hezbollah's embeddedness in Lebanon’s politics and society.