Conflict Alerts # 673, 10 October 2024
Ayan Datta In the news
On 1 October, Iran launched around 180 missiles into Israel in retaliation against Israel’s recent assassinations of Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders, killing a Palestinian man in the West Bank’s Jericho City. Israel intercepted most of the US, the UK, France, and Jordan’s assistance. However, an Iranian missile struck Israel’s Nevatim Air Base. Iranian officials had privately informed the US before launching the attacks.
On the same day, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, called Iran’s attack “a severe and dangerous escalation” to which Israel would respond “wherever, whenever and however” it chose.
On the same day, Hezbollah fired a missile into Israel’s Kfar Qassam village. Separately, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, stating: “An all-out war must be avoided in Lebanon at all costs, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon must be respected.”
On 30 September, Israel’s ground forces launched “limited, localised and targeted raids” against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon using the IDF’s 98th Paratroopers Division (12000, 14000 soldiers) and 7th Armoured Brigade (3,000 to 5,000). An anonymous Israeli official stated that the ground operations would be limited in size and scope compared to Israel’s war against Hezbollah in 2006, aiming only to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the Israel-Lebanon border. Separately, the IDF destroyed a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut using an airstrike.
On the same day, US President Joe Biden expressed opposition to Israel’s operations and called for a ceasefire.
On 28 September, the IDF killed the Deputy Head of Hezbollah’s Central Council, Nabil Kaouk, in an airstrike.
On 27 September, the Israel Defence Forces killed Hezbollah’s General Secretary, Hassan Nasrallah, chief of Hezbollah’s drone operations, Mohammad Surour, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Deputy Commander, Abbas Nilforoushan in an airstrike at Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut.
Issues at large
First, an overview of Israel-Hezbollah wars. During the Israel-Lebanon War of 1982, Iran-backed Shia clerics founded Hezbollah to defeat Israel’s occupation of Lebanon’s capital Beirut. Although Hezbollah forced the IDF to withdraw from Beirut, Israel continued to occupy parts of southern Lebanon. In 1993, Israel launched “Operation Accountability” to prevent Hezbollah from establishing a support base in southern Lebanon. Despite the attack, Hezbollah continued to maintain a presence in southern Lebanon and began firing rockets into Israel. In April 1996, Israel launched “Operation Grapes of Wrath” in Lebanon to force Hezbollah north of central Lebanon’s Litani River and deter it from launching rockets. Israel's operation failed, and Hezbollah began carrying out guerilla warfare against Israel, forcing the IDF to largely withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000, except for the 22 square kilometre Shebaa Farms area. In 2006, Hezbollah kidnapped and took two IDF soldiers hostage, leading to Israel’s attack on the armed group. Although the war remained inconclusive, Hezbollah claimed victory because it survived Israel’s attack, with then General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah holding a victory speech.
Second, recent tensions between Israel and Iran. According to the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Iran encouraged Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Realising Iran’s role of using proxies, Israel attacked Iran’s Consulate in Damascus on 1 April, killing IRGC Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. On 13 April, Iran responded by launching 300 missiles and drones towards Israel to deter the latter from assassinating Iranian leaders. However, on 4 June, an IDF airstrike killed an IRGC military advisor in Syria’s Aleppo, escalating the bilateral tensions. Furthermore, Israel promised to respond to the barrage with a larger attack and fired a missile that landed near Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, with no response from Iran. On 31 July, Israel allegedly killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, causing Iran to promise a retaliation at a time of their choosing.
Third, calls for ceasefire and realities. For the UN and the US, Israel should agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah and not escalate against Iran, Lebanon’s government should disarm Hezbollah, and Lebanon’s Armed Forces and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) troops should be strengthened through international efforts. However, Israel wants to counter Iran’s attacks with a larger strike and push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River. Furthermore, the US provides arms shipments to Israel irrespective of its behaviour towards Hezbollah and Iran.
In perspective
First, Israel’s Hezbollah problem. Although Israel decisively won its wars against Arab states in 1948, 1967, and 1973 and successfully disarmed the PLO during the Oslo Accords, it has had a troubled history with Hezbollah, failing to defeat and deter it despite conducting operations in 1993, 1996 and 2006. However, this time, with its leadership and Iranian advisors killed, Hezbollah will face greater difficulties defending against Israel.
Second, Iran’s second barrage against Israel reflects the failure of its strategic restraint towards Israel. While Iran expected to encircle Israel preoccupied with Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel sensed Iran’s weak deterrence capabilities and continued to assassinate IRGC, Hamas, and Hezbollah leaders. If Israel retaliates to Iran’s strike, tit-for-tat missile exchanges can be expected.