Conflict Alerts # 674, 10 October 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 30 September, the UAE accused the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) of attacking the residence of its ambassador to Sudan. The UAE condemned the attack as a “heinous” one. The SAF has continuously accused the UAE of supporting the RSF in the war.
On the same day, the SAF denied the accusations and blamed its rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for the same.
On the same day, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “The UAE has called on the army to assume full responsibility for this cowardly act.” It described the attack as a “flagrant violation of the fundamental principle of the inviolability of diplomatic premises.” Meanwhile, the SAF accused the RSF of carrying out a “shameful and cowardly act.”
On 26 September, the SAF launched a major offensive against the RSF in the capital Khartoum. According to Al Jazeera, four people were killed and 14 were wounded.
On 25 September, the UN during the General Assembly called for “immediate steps to be taken to protect civilians, scale up humanitarian funding and access, and end the fighting once and for all.”
Issues at large
First, the prolonged civil war in Sudan. The civil war in Sudan has been prolonged for 18 months and an end to the war seems elusive. It is not anymore a rivalry between two military factions, the SAF and the RSF. The war has geographically expanded from Khartoum to the cities of Bahri, Omdurman, Wad Madani and Port Sudan and the states of Darfur and Kordofan. The war has evolved into ethnic lines with the RSF and the SAF aligning with Arab and non-Arab ethnic militias. Ethnic links have intensified the conflict, putting the Darfur states once again vulnerable to a massive humanitarian disaster. The war has killed nearly 20,000 and internally displaced ten million. While SAF has aligned with the rebel group including SPLM-N, the RSF has been targeting the Masalit community in Darfur. The UN has expanded the arms embargo on Sudan. However, despite the embargo, the weapons supplied to both warring parties have never been disrupted. A recent report by Human Rights Watch said that the RSF and the SAF have been using armed drones, drone jammers, anti-tank guided missiles, truck-mounted multi-barrel rocket launchers and motor munitions. The weapons were produced by companies registered in China, Iran, Russia, Serbia and the UAE. Besides, nine rounds of ceasefire attempts and peace talks led by actors including the US and Saudi Arabia have failed. Although the warring parties always committed to the international efforts to bring an end to the violence, they seldom complied with the agreed terms.
Second, the SAF's bid to recapture Khartoum. The SAF claims to be the legitimate government of Sudan, although it captured power through a coup in 2021, agreeing on a civilian transition. The UN has partly consented to SAF's legitimacy claims. Although the SAF shifted its centre to Port Sudan, losing Khartoum to the RSF has threatened the SAF's legitimacy claims. Capturing Khartoum and its twin cities gave the RSF a major advantage positioning its upper hand. Following months of lull in violence, in August, the SAF began its bid to recapture Khartoum by encircling pocket regions.
Third, the UAE's alleged support to RSF. Since the beginning of the war, the UAE has been allegedly supporting the RSF with weapons. The UAE has been supplying weapons to the RSF through the smuggling routes in Chad. UAE's close ties with the RSF are attributed to its economic interests. The UAE leases several land and farming areas in the country. International Holding Company (IHC) and Jenan Investment, the two largest companies in UAE, are leasing 50,000 hectares of land in Sudan. The UAE is allegedly supporting the RSF for political support to continue its activities. Unlike the SAF, the RSF’s disregard for human rights is a practical advantage for the UAE to achieve its interests.
In perspective
The SAF’s new offensive with a bid to recapture Khartoum has shifted the events of the war after a break to violence. However, recapturing the capital is an uneasy task for the SAF. The RSF controls Khartoum's twin cities of Omdurman and Bahri as well. While there is an abundance of arms supply to both warring parties and limited incentive to end the war, it will prolong. However, with limited and restricted international aid access, the humanitarian cost will be immense. It would likely lead to an unstable Horn of Africa.