Conflict Alerts # 678, 31 October 2024
Manoranjan Kumar In the news
On 26 October, Georgia voted for a new parliament and government. The central electoral commission said the ruling Georgian Dream Party won, securing nearly 54 per cent of votes—the party heads for a fourth consecutive term in office with 89 parliamentary seats. The opposition, a coalition of four parties, secured 37.7 per cent votes with 61 seats.
On the same day, the pro-Western opposition contested the result, alleging ballot-stuffing, bribery, voter intimidation and violence during election and polling.
On 27 October, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili called on Georgians to protest against the result. She said: “This was a total rigging, a total robbery of your votes.” President Zourabichvili, a former ally of the ruling Georgian Dream and turned a fierce critic, said that she did not recognize the results and referred to the vote as a “Russian special operation”. However, Russia has denied any involvement in the Georgian election.
On 28 October, BBC interviewed Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. He rejected the opposition’s claims of vote-rigging and violence. He said: “Irregularities happen everywhere, in every country. Out of 3,111 polling stations, there had been incidents in just a couple of precincts but that in all others the environment was completely peaceful.”
On 29 October, NEWS WIRES quoted Georgia’s central election commission that it will recount ballots from five polling stations, randomly selected from each election district, following the opposition’s refusal to recognize the results.
Issues at large
First, a brief background of the Georgian political system. Georgia, a country of 3.6 million people in the Caucasus mountains, is a democratic republic, combining elements of parliamentary and semi-presidential system. The President is the head of state but has limited power than the Prime Minister. The country has a multi-party system, although a few dominant parties hold the majority influence. The Georgian Dream Party and the United National Movement are two major parties. The Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012. This year's election was held under a new proportional electoral system, in which parties had to reach a five per cent threshold to win seats in the 150-seat Parliament.
Second, major issues in the parliamentary election of 2024. The 2024 election was crucial, as the voters had to choose between a pro-Western opposition coalition and a Russia-inclined ruling party. However, 80 per cent of Georgians favour joining the EU, according to various poll data during the election. The ruling Georgian Dream Party campaigned with slogans including 'No to war!', 'Choose peace', and 'Yes to the EU but with dignity!'. However, the opposition has repeatedly accused the party of subverting this objective. The ruling government's policies are deciding factors in the parliamentary election. It includes "foreign agent law," which is similar to Russian law and is used to crush political dissents. This law states that nongovernmental groups and independent media outlets must register as '"agents of foreign influence." This legislation has sparked mass protests across Georgia. Another legislation called "LGBT propaganda" was passed by the current government to restrict the rights of this vulnerable group. Unemployment and mass migration were other significant issues in this election.
Third, the election results in 2024 and allegations by opponents. The Georgian Dream's unprecedented victory has sparked controversy, with all opposition parties rejecting the results. They have raised concerns over election integrity, voter intimidation, ballot-stuffing, and the use of state resources to sway the election in favour of the Georgian Dream. The exit poll results favoured the pro-West opposition coalition. The opposition party Coalition for Change's leader described the result as 'a constitutional coup.' International observers have criticized the elections, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union. It has called for investigations into irregularities and reports of coercion, especially targeting vulnerable and public sector workers. However, according to observers, the election was peaceful, and there was uncertainty regarding the election's legitimacy.
Fourth, the EU's stance. The EU closely monitored the election as Georgia gained candidate status in December 2023. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on Georgia's election commission to investigate the reported violations. The head of the European Parliament delegation to the OSCE mission, Antonio Lopezlsturiz White, expressed deep concern about the democratic backsliding in Georgia. The EU has already responded by freezing Georgia’s bid to join the bloc, accusing it of democratic backsliding after the government passed the ‘foreign agent law’ in June.
In perspective
After the 2024 parliamentary election results, the situation in Georgia seems concerning. The alleged fraud in the election by the ruling Georgian Dream has put the country's democratic future in loom. A group of Georgian election monitors found evidence of complex and large-scale fraud, particularly in rural areas and demanded the annulment of at least 15 per cent of votes. The opposition parties have decided not to enter the new "illegitimate" Parliament and demanded fresh elections run by an international election administration. It seems Georgia is in serious political turmoil. If the allegations of electoral misconduct are not resolved, Georgia will likely face mass protests in the coming days. It will be interesting to see how Georgia will handle this extraordinary situation amid international pressure on alleged election irregularities.
For EU membership, it is mandatory to fulfil the Copenhagen criteria set by the European Council. The requirements include stable liberal democracy, rule of law, human rights, respect for minorities, and a functional market economy. The ongoing situation is weakening the chances of Georgia's integration into the EU. The voters seem divided over the country's future course. Support for the pro-Western opposition groups came from urban and younger voters, who envision their future with the EU. Meanwhile, the ruling government received the support of conservatives by stressing family values and criticizing Western excesses. This ongoing polarization reflects the high stakes of Georgia’s geopolitical position between Russian influence and Western integration goals.