Conflict Alerts # 679, 7 November 2024
Femy Francis In the news
On 4 November, the Indian Army resumed patrolling in the Depsang region in Ladakh after a similar move in Demchok the previous week. It came after India and China agreed to disengage in the Eastern sector. On 5 November, India’s Minister of Foreign Affairs S Jaishankar stated that while the disengagement is concluded, it’s time for de-escalation by building up forces along the LAC.
On 21 October, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated: “Agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border areas, leading to disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.” The agreement was affirmed by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the 2024 BRICS summit.
Issues at large
First, a brief note on the confrontation in Galwan. The skirmish began weeks before the confrontation on 15 June 2020. The valley became the hotspot after India built a road along the Galwan river close to the LAC. In May 2020, Chinese soldiers set up tents, shifted equipment and dug trenches in the Indian territory. India’s Ministry of External Affairs accounted the clash a retaliation against the Chinese side trying to “change the status quo.” Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Indian soldiers of deliberate provocation leading to an altercation. Since the Galwan clash, several meetings continued to de-escalate the situation. This led to the 2021 synchronized disengagement in the Southern and Northern parts of Pangong Tso of the Eastern sector.
Second, a brief note on geographical border-sharing points of contention. India shares 3,488 kilometres of border with China. This border runs along the five states of India: Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Himachal Pradesh. The Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force established Border Out Posts (BOPs) beside the LAC. These outposts are divided into three sectors: Western Sector (Jammu and Kashmir), Middle Sector (Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand), and the Eastern Sector (Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh). As of 2023, there are over 180 BOPs in the LAC. Another point of contention is the Pangong Tso which has the eight Fingers marking the LAC. China believes it has access until Finger 4, while India claims territory until Finger 8. Currently, India has access until the Finger 3.
Third, a brief note on standoffs and negotiations. Following the 1962 India- China war there were two major clashes - the 1967 standoff at the Nathu La border in Sikkim and the 1975 clash at the Tulung La pass. Then there were standoffs in 1987, 2013, and 2017, which were successfully de-escalated. The last two major clashes were the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the Galwan Valley crisis in 2020. After the 2020 skirmish, the border question came to the forefront. In 2021, there was a disengagement agreement in the Hot Springs and Panging Tso regions. For years, India and China engaged in bilateral meetings to resolve the border issues. India’s National Security Advisor and China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs met on the sidelines of international events and discussed the border issues. China-India has engaged in 21 Corps Commander Level Meetings to resolve the contentions.
In perspective
First, aim to de-escalate not reclaim. The end goal of this particular agreement is to come back to the status quo before the 2020 standoff. The Indian or Chinese government does not aim to resolve or cede the boundary contentions through this particular agreement. Both countries stand firm in their claims in the region. In particular, for India, it wants to gain access to patrolling points that have been blocked. China has agreed to secede the parts for patrolling which were under India prior 2020 incident.
Second, border skirmish and contention to reoccur. While the Eastern sector saw a successful disengagement, it wouldn’t lead to blind trust as both countries will continue to be cautious of each other. Border contentions are complicated, ingrained in both country's memory, and are at the heart of contention. The agreement has to be viewed with a narrow lens as it had the precise aim of engaging in limited normalcy only in the particular region. Other regions of contention will continue to face skirmishes.