Conflict Alerts # 683, 21 November 2024
Anu Maria Joseph In the news
On 18 November, Russia vetoed a UK and Sierra Leone-backed UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan. The UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy described the veto a "disgrace." He stated: "How many more Sudanese have to be killed? How many more women have to be raped? How many more children have to go without food before Russia will act?"
All other 14 UNSC members voted in favour of the resolution. Russia's representative at the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy said that the resolution was "an attempt to give themselves opportunity to meddle" in the internal affairs of Sudan.
On the same day, Sudan’s ambassador to the UN, Al-Harith Idriss al-Harith Mohamed, said that certain "prerequisites" including condemnation of the UAE for allegedly backing RSF and classifying the RSF as "terrorists" were not included in the draft.
On 14 November, a report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's Sudan Research Group claimed that number of people dying because of the war in Sudan is higher than the previous reports. It stated that more than 61,000 people have died in Khartoum alone and 26,000 of those killed in direct violence and many others died because of preventable disease and starvation.
On the same day, Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard alleged the RSF of using vehicles in Darfur supplied by the UAE and manufactured in France. He stated: "Our research shows that weaponry designed and manufactured in France is in active use on the battlefield in Sudan."
Issues at large
First, a prolonged war. The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has crossed 19 months. A new wave of violence began in mid-October. Capital Khartoum, the cities of Omdurman and Bahri, and the states of Darfur and Kordofan are not the sole flashpoints anymore. El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, is under relentless bombardment, aerial attacks and civilian atrocities. The death toll in Al Hilalliya town in Eastern Al Jazirah has increased to 527 since late October, according to Sudan Tribune. The RSF has been carrying out attacks to take control of SAF bases, forcibly recruit men from displacement camps, and ally with tribal leaders and clan chiefs.
Second, insufficient responses and ineffective mediation. The latest round of UNSC resolution calling for a ceasefire failed after ten rounds of ceasefire efforts by international actors including the US and Saudi Arabia. In September, the UN extended an arms embargo on Sudan, aiming to bring down the intensity of violence. However, it did not disrupt the flow of weapons. The SAF criticises the US and European countries for tactically supporting the RSF by not responding to the UAE supplying arms to the RSF.
Third, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. According to the UN Human Rights Commission, nearly 11 million people are internally displaced amidst the war. The war has triggered direct violence, armed robberies, looting, sexual violence, and ethnic clashes across the country. Besides, famines, weather disasters and the spread of diseases have exacerbated the crisis. In August, WFP declared famine in the Zamzam IDP camp with 14 other regions facing similar conditions.
Fourth, regional impacts. According to UNHCR, two million people from Sudan have taken refuge in neighbouring countries including South Sudan, Chad, and Egypt. The refugee influx in the region has left these countries in crisis. UN's IPC Index published on 18 November records that almost 7.7 million people would be facing acute food insecurity by April 2025 in South Sudan, wherein Sudanese refugees being the most vulnerable.
In perspective
The war has prolonged and it is uncertain how long it will continue or ever end. The short-sighted objective to end violence, ignoring the root causes behind Sudan’s decades-long struggle, has added the country to the list of “never-ending wars.”
Russia vetoing the UNSC resolution says that Sudan has become a battleground for several international actors, including Russia, the UAE, and Iran, for their geopolitical ambitions. The war in Sudan not being at the best interest of the US or any other Western countries, they have realised that bringing the warring parties to a negotiating table is a herculean task. They would likely give limited attention and effort to avoid the blame of ignorance. Without substantial Western support, international organizations, including the UN and its agencies, have a limited role. The warring parties' inclination toward several African countries is a major challenge for regional organizations.
The outcome of the war is an innumerable human cost. The protracted war and climate crisis have induced a humanitarian disaster in Sudan and the region. More international attention and response is required to the humanitarian crisis than the war which has no end in sight. Because, even if the war is to end tomorrow, the humanitarian rebuilding will take decades.