Conflict Reader

Photo Source:

Will Afghanistan prevent the movement of the TTP within its soil without a quid pro quo? Even if it wants to pursue the TTP in its border provinces, does Kabul have enough firepower to undertake a parallel operation across the Durand Line?

Photo Source: Dawn, www.dawn.com

Conflict Reader # 4, 31 December 2016

Af-Pak
Zarb-e-Azb: Pakistan, Afghanistan and the TTP

CR Analysis

D. Suba Chandran
Professor
International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP)
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore

D. Suba Chandran
Professor
International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP)
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore

Hundreds of militants have been killed ever since the military in Pakistan launched an offensive against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the country’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in June 2014. There have also been numerous reports that ever since the military operations began, there has been an exodus of militants and civilians from the FATA into Afghanistan cutting across the Durand Line.

As a headline in one of the leading news papers read, Pakistan today wants Afghanistan to either “extradite” Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the TTP, or “eliminate” him. Will such an approach with Afghanistan succeed, given the large-scale differences between Kabul and Islamabad?

After innumerable deliberations within Pakistan and the chimera of a dialogue with the TTP, the military operations have begun only now. But the harsh reality for Pakistan is: there are no similar operations from the other side of the Durand Line, or even a basic security template in Afghanistan to deal with those who are currently crossing the border between the two.

General Asim Saleem Bajwa, in one of his Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR) briefings in early July 2014 commented that “the leader of the TTP Mullah Fazlullah is sitting across the border in Kunar or Nuristan and Afghanistan needs to do something about it.” Perhaps he was, and perhaps Afghanistan should do something about it.

Is TTP a priority for Kabul?
Despite complaints from Pakistan, the Afghan government could not deal with Pakistani militants who have been hiding in Paktia, Paktika, Kunar and Nuristan provinces adjoining the Durand Line. Perhaps, they were not the priority for the present Afghan government that is facing the exit of the US troops, national and provincial elections, and more importantly, its own security threats from the Afghan Taliban and its affiliates including the Haqqani Network.

Though a section within Pakistan believes that Kabul in fact colludes with Fazlullah (along with India and the US of course), it is a farfetched proposition. Fazlullah may not be a priority for Afghanistan, as Hafiz Saeed and Mullah Omar are not for Pakistan.

The politics of “trump cards” and “not our problem” approach have been played so far and will continue to play a crucial role in the role neighbours’ perceptions and subsequent actions against militancy and terrorism.

Across the Durand: Trust Deficit and Militancy
Second, there has been a huge trust deficit between Pakistan and Afghanistan in terms of providing support to militancy. Kabul has repeatedly complained that the roots and bases of Taliban militancy in Afghanistan are inside Pakistan; in particular, the Pakistani military’s reluctance to go after Mullah Omar’s Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network was viewed that way not only by the Afghan government, but also the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) leadership.

Similarly, a section within Pakistan even believes that the Afghan government secretly supports the TTP. Inherent tensions over the Durand Line between the two countries and the recent border clashes have created a huge gap between the Islamabad and Kabul. An added disadvantage for Pakistan is – many in Afghanistan do not trust Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), even if they find the political leadership sincere; and since the days of jihad against the Soviets, the Afghans believe that the ISI abused the relationship and would like to control Afghanistan rather than cooperating with them.

Neutralising the TTP: Is Pakistan Serious Now?
Islamabad and Rawalpindi, have, until recently, been reluctant to go after even the Pakistani Taliban. Islamabad (under Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif now, and President Asif Ali Zardari earlier) had been attempting to initiate a dialogue with the TTP, as has been pointed out by the former Director General of the ISPR in a recent interview to the BBC, and Rawalpindi was hesitant to engage the militants through military operations. According to Maj Gen Athar Abbas, “it had been decided in principle that preparations for the operation would take place between 2010 and 2011, and that it would be launched in 2011 to rid North Waziristan of extremists once and for all... He (Gen Kayani) was very reluctant when it came to the North Waziristan operation. Kayani thought the decision to launch the operation would reflect on his personality and people would take it as his personal decision, which is why he kept delaying the operation.”

Given the reluctance within the political and military leadership in Pakistan to go against even the TTP, it would be a Herculean task to convince them to neutralise the Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network. 

Will Afghanistan prevent the movement of the TTP within its soil without a quid pro quo? Even if it wants to pursue the TTP in its border provinces, does Kabul have enough firepower to undertake a parallel operation across the Durand Line? No doubt, the militants belonging to the Afghan Taliban, or the TTP or the al Qaeda – are a threat to the entire region. But until now, despite the pressure from its own public, the leadership in Pakistan has not realised it.

This will pose a huge challenge for Pakistan to achieve any substantial success in Operation Zarb-e-Azb

The above was originally published by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

Other Publications

Left-wing Extremism in India
March 2020 | Brief

Another Maoist ambush in Chhattisgarh: Lessons from a Failure

read more
After Doha
March 2020 | Analysis

The US-Taliban deal will lead to an Afghan Civil War

read more
The US-Taliban deal in Doha
March 2020 | Analysis

Five reasons why Pakistan is ecstatic

read more
Pakistan
November 2019 | Analysis

The Fazlur Fizzle: The Azadi March will fail, for four reasons

read more
Afghan Elections
October 2019 | Analysis

The Afghans are in for a long haul; so should the rest of us

read more
India & Pakistan
April 2019 | Brief

Crossing the Pak Rubicon: Six premises that India questioned at Balakot

read more
Afghanistan
March 2019 | Comment

Dialogue with the Taliban: Six Questions

read more
The Road to Doha
February 2019 | Comment

Why the Taliban continues with Violence despite Peace Talks: Three Explanations

read more
Afghanistan
January 2019 | Comment

All in the name of Peace

read more
Early Warning Conflict Alert
January 2019 | Brief

South Asia: Five Conflicts to Watch in 2019

read more
Sri Lanka
November 2018 | Brief

Reconvene the Parliament and Respect the Constitution

read more
Myanmar
October 2018 | Analysis

The UN, Myanmar and the Rohingyas

read more
Kashmir
September 2018 | Analysis

Building Peace Momentum in J&K

read more
Af-Pak
May 2018 | Brief

Will Pakistan walk the Afghan Talk?

read more
Balochistan
May 2018 | Analysis

Who is targeting the Hazara? And Why?

read more
Radicalism Project
April 2018 | Analysis

“I am not Malala”: Deciphering the anti-Malala Sentiment in Pakistan

read more
Afghanistan I Sectarain
April 2018 | Analysis

The Sectarian Spiral in Afghanistan: Who? And Why?

read more
Sri Lanka
March 2018 | Analysis

The Anti-Muslim Violence in Sri Lanka

read more
Maldives
March 2018 | Analysis

The Political Crisis in Maldives

read more
Gender Violence
January 2018 | Analysis

South Asia's Kasur Problem: Hypocritical Civil Society, Insensitive Investigation, Indifferent Judiciary and a Hard State

read more
Regional
January 2018 | Analysis

South Asia's Conflict Peripheries

read more
Bilateral I Indo-Pak
January 2018 | Analysis

Will the Indo-Pak Relations improve in 2018?

read more
Myanmar
December 2017 | Analysis

South Asia's Rohingya Predicament

read more
Radicalism Project
November 2017 | Brief

The State surrenders to the Mullahs: Why did the Military aid? And why did the Government agree?

read more
Balochistan
November 2017 | Analysis

The Slow Burn: One Province and Five Actors

read more
Radicalism Project
November 2017 | Analysis

The Ghost of Mumtaz Qadri

read more
Peace Alert
November 2017 | Analysis

Towards an Inclusive Kashmir Dialogue

read more
Af-Pak
October 2017 | Analysis

Joshua and Caitlan: Story of Victims, Rescuers and Perpetrators

read more
Radicalism Project
October 2017 | Analysis

The Islamic State in South Asia: Why are the State and Society reluctant to acknowledge?

read more
Myanmar
September 2017 | Analysis

The Rohingya Politics: Between Strong Military, Weak Government, Rakhine Faultlines and Ma Ba Tha

read more
Myanmar
September 2017 | Analysis

The Rohingya Conflict: The Burning Villages, Social Media and the Internationalization of Violence

read more
Pakistan
August 2017 | Analysis

Jirga and Gender Violence

read more
Society
July 2017 | Analysis

Pashtunwali, Kashmiriyat and Sufi: Are our Social Codes under Stress?

read more
Sectarian
July 2017 | Analysis

Pakistan's Parachinar Problem

read more
Afghanistan
June 2017 | Analysis

Afghans’ Kabul Problem

read more
Pakistan
May 2017 | Comment

Fighting Taliban and the Islamic State: Don't prioritize

read more
India-Pakistan
April 2017 | Comment

Cross-LoC Interactions: Low Hanging Kashmir Fruit

read more
ISIS
April 2017 | Comment

Fighting the Daesh: A Regional Counter IS Strategy

read more
Pakistan
March 2017 | Brief

The Raddul Fasaad Fallouts: Will it succeed where Zarb-e-Azb failed?

read more
Pakistan
March 2017 | Comment

Deep-rooted Misogyny: Offend her; she will forgive in the name of tradition

read more
Pakistan
February 2017 | Comment

Court, Society and Valentine Day: Is expression of love against our culture?

read more
Pakistan
February 2017 | Brief

Hafiz Saeed Detention: Tactical Choice or Strategic Decision?

read more
Pakistan
January 2017 | Analysis

Terror revisits Parachinar: Kurram Agency’s Ten Year Sectarian Itch

read more
Pakistan
January 2017 | Analysis

State vs Militant Groups: What if the Genie has a mind of its own?

read more
Pakistan
January 2017 | Analysis

Sectarian Violence: No More Deja Vu

read more
Af-Pak
January 2017 | Comment

Pakistan’s Afghan Policy: What Shapes? Who Shapes? And through What Strategies?

read more
Pakistan
January 2017 | Analysis

Saudi Arabia, Iran and the ISIS: Pakistan’s Middle East Conundrum

read more
Pakistan
December 2016 | Analysis

Honour Killing: No Honour, Only Crime and Evil

read more
Pakistan
December 2016 | Analysis

Foreign Fighters: Why Pashtuns and Punjabis?

read more
Af-Pak
December 2016 | Analysis

Across the Durand Line: Who is in Control?

read more
Pakistan
December 2016 | Comment

And Now, They Are Coming For Our Children

read more
Af-Pak
December 2016 | Analysis

A Tale of Two Taliban: Linkages between Afghan and Pakistan Taliban

read more
Af-Pak
December 2016 | Analysis

Torkham Clashes: Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Durand Line

read more