NIAS Strategic Forecast #21, January 2018

Trump’s New Year tweet on January was almost an ultimatum asking Pakistan to take certain actions towards Afghanistan and the militants groups in the Af-Pak region.

The American threat of “do more” is not a new one; during the last few years, one could see a trend and a déjà vu in the US threats towards Pakistan and the response by the latter. The Trump administration issued a similar threat a few months earlier, followed by attempting to work with Pakistan “one last time”.

However, the threat issued by Trump through a tweet seems to be different. There was a follow up action to the Trump threat; the US administration announced suspending the aid across-the-board.

How far will the US administration go this time in forcing Pakistan to do more? What has changed? And what has not? And what is not likely to?