Conflict Alerts

Conflict Alerts # 211, 7 January 2021

Northeast India: NSCN(K) faction intends to join the Nagaland peace process, AFSPA remain extended
Sourina Bej

In the news 
On 30 December 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs extended the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), 1958, in Nagaland thereby designating the state as a "disturbed area" for another six months. The extension is a routine affair as the state has been under AFSPA for almost six decades and the last such extension was on 30 June. The extension follows amid ongoing peace talks. 

On 23 December 2020, the Niki Sumi faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-SS Khaplang (NSCN-K) or NSCN-GPRN announced their intent to join the peace talks and revive the ceasefire with the Government of India. The faction further added they expect the government to respond positively and honour their decision. 

Issues at large
First, second split in NSCN(K) and takeover by Yung Aung faction. Niki Sumi has been the most-wanted militant on the National Investigation Agency's list who controlled NSCN(K) 's extortion networks and jade mines in Myanmar. His intention for peace talks completes the division of NSCN (K) along national lines. Sumi's group emerged in July after differences with Yung Aung, the nephew of Khaplang and torchbearer of the Nagas in Myanmar. Since the death of Khaplang in 2017, NSCN(K) operating in Sagaing division of Myanmar, has split twice over the leadership tussle with Yung Aung. The first split in 2018 led Khango Konyak, a Mon from Nagaland, to join the NNPGs. The second split came in July 2020 when camps of Niki Sumi, Nyamlang Konyak Naga, Starson Lamkang Naga, all hailing from Nagaland, were attacked and subsequently purged out the NSCN(K) by Aung. 

Second, the impact on the Naga peace process. Niki Sumi has not yet declared his intention to join the NNPGs, unlike its predecessor Khango Konyak; nevertheless, its presence will make the talks inclusive. The Naga peace talks reached a stalemate when differences emerged between the NSCN(I-M) and interlocutor Governor Ravi on the ground of "shared sovereignty." On the other hand, NNPGs, a group of seven Naga insurgent groups, has continued with its dialogue since it signed the 'Deed of Commitment' in 2017. In 2015, when the government signed the framework agreement with NSCN(I-M), one of the criticisms to the process has been the absence of NSCN(K). With Konyok and Sumi, the factions from NSCN(K) representing the Indian Nagas will have a seat in the talks. 

Third, the State's response and extension of AFSPA. In October 2020, the coordinated counter-insurgency operations by Assam Rifles, Indian Army and Tatmadaw targeting the Niki Sumi group have also led Sumi, Starson, and 50 other cadres to surrender or come overground. The security agencies have worked on Sumi's return to India with an eye on concluding the Naga peace deal. The COVID-19 restrictions on cross border movement, operational challenges and infighting with Yung Aung have conclusively forced the leadership to rethink their future course. Simultaneously even though the peace talks and ceasefire continue, it has not translated into the revoking of the AFSPA. 

In perspective 
Nimmi Suki's intention to join would strengthen the ongoing peace process. It took more than three decades to come out of the woods to the table and yet the NSCN (K-Yung Aung) remains on the outside. In protracted conflicts, the surrender policy has been such that it permits insurgent groups to surrender but also opt to keep arms in reserve, thereby ensuring an option to return if favourable gains are not achieved in the peace process. It remains to be seen whether Sumi joins the NNPGs and it is likely to follow once he is assured of 'no arrest.' 

June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 397
Myanmar: The Aung San Suu Kyi trial begins
June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 390
Burkina Faso: Another massacre in Africa

June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 386
Nigeria: Another mass abduction grips Niger state

June 2021 | Conflict Alert # 385
Colombia: The protests continue
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 382
Israel-Hamas ceasefire: The long road to peace

May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 380
Colombia: Three weeks of protests
May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 378
Israel-Palestine: Who wants what?

May 2021 | Conflict Alert # 374
Yemen: The Battle for Marib rages on

April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 371
Pakistan: Meetings with Afghan leaders
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 369
Israel-Syria: Continuing Missile Strikes
April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 362
Iran: Another act of

April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 358
India: Another Maoist attack in Chhattisgarh

April 2021 | Conflict Alert # 356
Global Gender Gap Report 2021: Main Takeaways
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 353
Niger: 137 massacred in the latest attack by gunmen
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 351
Yemen: Saudi Arabia announces ceasefire

March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 347
Australia: Women fight against sexual violence 

March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 345
The US: The George Floyd trial begins
March 2021 | Conflict Alert # 340
Syria: UN report calls for a complete ceasefire
February 2021 | Conflict Alert # 333
South Korea: The 'Comfort Women' issue returns to haunt
January 2021 | Conflict Alert # 222
Russia: Pro-Navalny protests turn anti-government 
January 2021 | Conflict Alert # 220
COVID-19: The Vaccine Wars
December 2020 | Conflict Alert # 200
India: Farmers' protests intensify as deadlock persists
November 2020 | Conflict Alert # 191
Pakistan: Anti-French protests called off
October 2020 | Conflict Alert # 174
Bangladesh: Protests intensify against sexual violence

October 2020 | Conflict Alert # 167
India crosses 6 million-mark in COVID-19 cases
September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 166
Pakistan: The persisting polio problem

September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 156
Pakistan: Targeted Violence continues in Waziristan
September 2020 | Conflict Alert # 154
The anti-Racist Protests in the US: Between

August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 148
Israel and UAE normalize relations
August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 146
Bolivia: Protests against the Election postponement

August 2020 | Conflict Alert # 138
In Iraq, the protestors return to the streets 
July 2020 | Conflict Alert # 118
J&K: Geelani's Exit and Continuing Violence
June 2020 | Conflict Alert # 105
Black Lives Matter brings the US to its knees

May 2020 | Conflict Alert # 86
Libya: Khalifa Haftar announces ceasefire 
May 2020 | Conflict Alert # 81
India: The surge in violence in J&K

April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 71
Afghanistan: 300 Taliban prisoners released
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 67
Syria: New UN Report on Idlib
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 64
A lethal impact on the Refugee/Migrant Camps 
April 2020 | Conflict Alert # 63
Indigenous Communities battle a complete wipeout 
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 51
Coronavirus & China: Fall in numbers 
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 47
Coronavirus & Nepal: In the second stage, cancels
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 44
Two Presidents in Afghanistan
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 42
'Aurat March': A New beginning across Pakistan 
March 2020 | Conflict Alert # 38
Sri Lanka withdraws from 30/1 Geneva Resolution
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 35
A ceasefire between Israel, Islamic Jihad in Gaza
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 34
Libya: rivals withdraw from Geneva peace talks
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 33
India: Violence in Delhi

February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 32
Afghanistan: Seven Days of Peace
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 31
Climate Change Fallouts: Impacts the Bird population
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 28
Pakistan: Court convicts LeT founder Hafiz Saeed
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 27
Pakistan: Suicide terrorism returns to haunt Quetta
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 26
Afghanistan: The US-Taliban Seven Day Deal
February 2020 | Conflict Alert # 24
Israel: Violence in post  Trump-deal
January 2020 | Conflict Alert # 20
Kenya: Al Shabab and a week of killings
December 2019 | Conflict Alert # 19
Citizenship Amendment Bill:2019
November 2019 | Conflict Alert # 18
Lebanon: PM Hariri quits, but protests continue 
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 16
Bolivian unrest
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 15
Hundreds protest in Haiti
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 14
Protests rock Chile
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 13
Hong Kong Violence: A divide within

October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 12
Spain: The trouble in Catalonia
October 2019 | Conflict Alert # 11
Turkey's Offensive in Syria
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 9
Africa to be Polio Free

August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 7
Myanmar: Teenage girls traded as brides to China
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 6
Moscow Protests: Thousands rally in Moscow
August 2019 | Conflict Alert # 3
Jordan Restores diplomatic ties with Qatar