Conflict Alerts # 577, 12 January 2023
Padmashree Anandhan In the news
On 1 January, the Russian Defence Ministry claimed a strike on Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles’ (UAV) industrial facility using a “high-precision long-range air-based armament,'' killing over 350 Ukrainians and destroying air-defence missile systems. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed to have taken down 45 Shahed drones, killing 400 Russians in a missile attack in Makiivka; however, Russia’s Armed Forces reported only 89 casualties.
On 4 January, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would provide “light AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles” to Ukraine. He said: “This is the first time that Western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army.”
On 5 January, the White House and Germany released a joint statement on supplying more weapons: “The United States intends to supply Ukraine with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and Germany intends to provide Ukraine with Marder infantry fighting vehicles.”
On 5 January, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said: “I am instructing the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation to introduce a ceasefire along the entire line of combat engagement in Ukraine from 12:00 on January 6 until 24:00 on January 7 of this year.”
On 8 January, a Russian Defence Ministry spokesperson claimed that a “massive missile attack” in Kramatorsk had killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. The spokesperson said: “In response to an illicit strike inflicted by Kiev’s regime on a temporary Russian military base in the settlement of Makeyevka…the command of the united group of Russian military forces conducted a retaliation operation.”
On 10 January, the Russian mercenary Wagner group claimed to be fighting the war to capture Soledar as part of the Russian offensive in Donetsk. The same was confirmed by the UK Ministry of Defence which stated: “Soledar…likely continues to be Russia’s main immediate operational objective.”
Issues at large
First, the intensification. The exchange of shelling between Russia and Ukraine, which was concentrated in Ukraine’s southern and north-eastern regions, has expanded further into the eastern Ukraine, centre of Donetsk. The Ukraine military has shifted from attacking the frontline to shelling the Russian occupied Donbass area (Makiivka, Soledar), due to the upgradation of its military capabilities through the West’s supply of long-range air defence systems and an equal push to the ground forces through tactical battle tanks. On the other hand, Russia has been challenged with logistical issues, weakened military, dependency on the Wagner Group and Iran’s drones. Despite that, it aims to establish a strategic military base to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure and bring Donetsk under its control.
Second, the battle for Soledar and the involvement of the Wagner group. The Russian Defence Ministry has not claimed the use of Shahed drones in the Kramatorsk attacks. However, the US and the UK intelligence have observed otherwise. Russia’s control in the Donbass seems to be gradually fragmenting, accompanied by a need to involve the Wagner Group. The new year attacks in Kramatorsk and quick advances of the mercenary group into Soledar prove Russia’s determination to strengthen its posture, keep its weapons available at the right place (Soledar salt mine), and encircle Donetsk. However, increasing military support to Ukraine and the timing of the ceasefire announcement will further complicate the war strategies. The use of foreign drones, the involvement of the mercenary group, and the lag in striking back provide a glimpse into the growing vulnerability of the Russian military.
Third, strengthening air-defence systems and advancing ground mobility. The West’s support to Ukraine has slowly improved since September, from giving air defence missile systems, drone technologies, and intense training. In November, the US and Germany denied Ukraine’s request for patriot missiles and advanced ground mobility vehicles to counter Russia’s firepower. This changed in January, with the US, France, and Germany agreeing to provide battle tanks. These infantry fighting vehicles provide ground troops the tactical mobility to launch attacks close to the enemy. The Bradley and Marder have been upgraded with chain guns making them more effective in battleground.
In perspective
First, advantage Ukraine. Despite its inability to position its military against Russia’s concurrent attacks on its energy grid, Ukraine’s military is steadfast on the frontline, recapturing lost territories. The Ukraine military’s main challenge ahead would be to counter Russia’s forces and push them further into the east of Donetsk.
Second, Russia’s continued carpet bombing. Russia’s targeted attacks on the energy infrastructure are expected to continue, along with surprise carpet bombing in particular zones to inflict severe damage. A future ceasefire can be expected through Turkey’s mediation, if Russia decides to use it as an opportunity to replenish its military stocks.
Third, new weapon systems to Ukraine. There are several reasons behind the West agreeing to upgrade its military support. The cost factor of the Patriot missiles compared to those used in the HIMARS could be one. Another reason could be the early prediction for Russian aggression coming to an end. The last concern could be the economic impact of heavy military spending. Although the increased military support helped Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive, it raised the bar to launch into the Russian-occupied territories. The West’s further upgrading to Patriot missiles and infantry vehicles means it is ready to stretch its military expenditure sheet.