Conflict Alerts # 643, 21 June 2024
In the news
On 17 June, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved the war cabinet. Communications Specialist at the Prime Minister’s Office, David Mencer, stated that the war cabinet had been set up for Benny Gantz and the National Unity Party as a “prerequisite” for them joining the unity government formed after 7 October and that “with Mr Gantz leaving government (on 9 June), there is no need for the cabinet.”
On 18 June, Netanyahu stated that the Biden administration was “withholding weapons and ammunition from Israel.” On 20 June, White House spokesperson John Kirby commented that Netanyahu’s statement was “disappointing, especially given that no other country is doing more to help Israel defend itself against the threat by Hamas.”
On 16 June, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it would hold daily “tactical pauses” of military activity in southern Gaza for humanitarian aid deliveries. The pause would apply every day for 11 hours, from 8 am to 7 pm, along a route connecting the Kerem Shalom crossing to Khan Yunis’ European Hospital. On the same day, Netanyahu and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir criticised the IDF’s plan.
On 20 June, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagar stated that Israel’s war aim of eradicating Hamas was “unattainable.” He added: “If the government doesn’t find an alternative — [Hamas] will remain.”
The same day, Netanyahu’s office stated that Israel was committed to destroying Hamas. Additionally, the IDF stated that Hagar was only talking about Hamas as an idea and that “any other claim is taking things out of context.”
Issues at large
First, the internal differences over Israel’s endgame in Gaza. On 12 October 2023, Netanyahu constituted the war cabinet as an ad-hoc body with himself, Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant, and Gantz as members. It aimed to oversee Israel’s military efforts in Gaza. For Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners including Ben-Gvir, Israel shall reject US President Biden’s ceasefire deal and control Gaza after destroying Hamas. For Gantz, Netanyahu shall accept Biden’s deal and transfer Gaza’s civilian governance to an international coalition.
Second, the US-Netanyahu rift. The US is against Israel’s military operations in Rafah because of the risks of civilian casualties. It paused the arms shipment in protest against Israel’s attack. For Netanyahu, attacking Rafah was necessary because it contained the last remaining Hamas battalions.
The IDF statement on humanitarian pauses and endgames. For Netanyahu, Israel shall reject humanitarian pauses because they help Hamas rebuild its capabilities and control Gaza after eliminating Hamas. For the IDF, pausing military operations along one route does not harm its operations in the rest of Gaza. It believes that Hamas would revive its forces in Gaza unless replaced by a political alternative.
In perspective
Netanyahu’s conflict with the IDF over endgames is likely to intensify. Previously, Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant (a former IDF commander himself) had criticised Netanyahu’s endgame. For him, Gaza shall be governed by the Palestinian Authority. Hagar’s statement is similar to Gallant’s view. Gallant’s statement revealed a conflict between Netanyahu and the military establishment over endgames. Hagar’s views indicate that the conflict has intensified over time.
Eliminating Hamas may not be a viable war aim. Hamas fighters do not wear uniforms, ranks or insignia. Israel’s destruction of civilian infrastructure has radicalised local Gazans. According to the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, refugee camps created by Israel’s displacement serve as recruitment sites for Hamas. These camps hold around 1.5 million people, whereas the average Hamas organisation has around 200 fighters. Hamas can easily recruit local Gazans from camps and replenish its fighters at a faster rate than Israel eliminating them. Hamas has additionally changed its tactics from head-on attacks to guerilla warfare and hit-and-run tactics. All these factors make it difficult for the IDF to eliminate Hamas as a fighting force.