Conflict Alerts # 646, 28 June 2024
Padmashree Anandhan In the news
On 23 June, gunfire and intense fighting took place in an Orthodox church and Jewish synagogue in central Derbent and Makhachkala, the capital of the Republic of Dagestan, with 40 held hostage. According to the Interfax media, Russian security services blocked the perpetrators using military hardware and personnel carriers. The regional interior ministry confirmed the death of an orthodox priest, 20 others, including policemen and the injury of 46 others.
On the same day, TASS reported that the suspects of the attack were identified as “militants” with “foreign” weapons and members of “international terrorist organisation.”
On 23 June, the Russian Investigative Committee launched an investigation into the attacks, and the Russian National Antiterrorism Committee began a counter-terrorism operation in Dagestan.
On 24 June, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, said: “Everything possible must be done to prevent even the possibility of radicalization of religious life, to exclude any forms of extremism and ethnic enmity.”
On 24 June, The Washington Post reported on Russia’s lawmakers blaming Ukraine and NATO for the attacks. It mentioned reports from pro-Russian media, Al-Azaim, which linked the attacks to have been carried out by the Islamic State.
Issues at large
First, a brief background to Dagestan’s geography, demography and politics. The terror attacks, explosions and Russian troop special operations are not new in Dagestan. The republic is in Russia’s north Caucasus on the western shores of the Caspian Sea. 95 per cent of the population belongs to 30 ethnic groups. According to Russian government statistics, the communities are Muslims, Christians, and Jews. The region is home to most Muslims and various Islamic religious practices. Among them, Judaism is a long-stood religion with Persian-speaking Mountain Jews. The Caucasus was merged into the Russian empire during the nineteenth century alongside the rise of Muslim and Jewish resentment towards Tsarist, Soviet and Russian rule. It witnessed two Chechnya wars with Russians and separatists between 1994-1996 and 1999-2000, respectively. Following the defeat of Chechen insurgents, the Islamist group has been a persisting challenge for Russia.
Second, a profile of the recent attacks in Russia. Russia has faced terrorism for the past 30 years; the latest being the Crocus City Hall attack in March. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) summoned 11 suspects until now to court. In the past 20 years, terrorism across Russia aggravated from small-scale to major attacks, resulting in several deaths. Several attacks have been linked to extremists and radical Islamic movements. Since 1991, Chechen radicals have carried out several outrages. In the First Chechen War, the radicals frequently took hostage. This remained the common tactic. Russia tackled it through counterattacks and arrests. Between 1995 and 2006, extremists led by Shamil Basayev carried out the biggest terrorist attacks. Russia thwarted it through special operations and the execution of the terrorists. Although terrorist attacks continued in the form of explosions in trains, streets and air and captivating hostages, Russia used its special forces and emergency operations to release the hostages. Until 2013, the terrorist attacks by Chechen group continued, killing and injuring more than 1000. The attacks and Chechen wars came to an end when Umarov (the Chechen terrorist leader who created the Caucasus Emirate Jihadist organisation) was eliminated. Later, the Islamists who disbanded from the Caucasus Emirate became part of the Islamic State.
Third, ISIS-K and Russia. The ISIS-K (Islamic State – Khorasan), formed in 2014, consists of ousted members of the Pakistani Taliban. Its network expands to Central Asia, Russia, and Chechnya, with terrorism spreading into Iran, Turkey and Russia. The triggering factor for ISIS has been Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan and Syria (Support to the Assad regime), which helped them fight steadily against ISIS.
In perspective
First, Russia’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks. At the periphery, Russia fights its geopolitical war against Ukraine while the inside remains vulnerable to terrorist attacks. It’s a 30-year struggle for Russia against the Chechen, followed by the ISIS group, which exposes the loopholes, making it a softer target for ISIS compared to the US or Europe. One of the possibilities could be from the entry of nationals or Russians from Central Asia, especially Tajikistan, which has been home to suspects.
Second, ISIS is against Russia’s role in Middle-East and Muslim repression. On withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, its activities increased, leaving Russia as the major player in the Middle East and the sole target for ISIS. Apart from this, Russia’s strong security stance and repressive approach in Dagestan (Southern periphery) towards the Muslims after the Chechen wars also serves as another trigger.