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IPRI Conflict Weekly #57, 11 February 2021, Vol.1, No.57

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IPRI # 146, 11 February 2021

Conflict Weekly #57
Anti-Coup protests in Myanmar, a new US strategy on Yemen, and the US-Iran differences on nuclear roadmap

  IPRI Team

Aparupa Bhattacherjee, Rashmi BR and D Suba Chandran


Myanmar: The anti-coup protests begin, but the military stands undeterred
In the news
On 9 February, General Min Aung Hlaing, issued a long public statement for the first time since coming to power. He justified the necessity of the coup as the 2020 November election was “unfair.”

On 8 February, the NLD lawmakers formed a committee called the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) as an alternative Parliament body, denouncing the coup as illegitimate.

On 6 February, the street protests started and continue to gain momentum. However, beginning from 9 February the Tatmadaw started taking action against the protestors on the grounds of violation of the martial law and the ban on the assimilation of more than five people.

On 9 February, New Zealand declared to sever all ties with Myanmar. On the same day, the coup and the other developments in the country were discussed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US President Joe Biden over a telephonic conversation.

Issues at large
First, the flawed rationale and the real reasons behind the military in staging the coup. General Hlaing’s speech and his reiteration that the 2020 election was fraudulent are not enough to justify the coup. The military's statement of fraud is without any evidence; the Union election commission and international observers disagreed on this blame. The military, that came to power under General Ne Win's leadership, was never keen to give up its power. The 2010 shift to democracy was because of international pressures through sanctions, crippling economy and widespread anger from the people. 

Second, the military's control despite the two elections in 2010 and 2015 and the new danger post-2020 elections. In 2010, the USDP, a military proxy came to power as NLD boycotted it. The 2015 elections, though brought the NLD to form the government, the military had sufficient leverage. The 2008 Constitution enabled the military to have 25 per cent reservation in both the Houses; along with the USDP, the military to continue the façade of democracy through these two options. The 2020 election threatened this arrangement, as the USDP was unable to get minimum votes required. Hence the coup.

Third, the history of protests in Myanmar and what is new in February 2021. Myanmar has witnessed massive and organised protests against the military governments in 1988 and 2007. The 1988 protests were started by the students with demonetisation triggering it. The 2007 protests (referred to as the Saffron revolution due to the participation of the monks), was also instigated due to economic reasons. However, in 2021 protests are different; the desperation for democracy is evident in the zeal to fight against the Tatmadaw.

In perspective
Internally, the military is consolidating, as could be seen from Gen Hlaing's speech. On the other side, the protests against the coup have also started. The next few weeks, there would be instability in the streets.

Externally, countries like New Zealand, that do not have major investments in Myanmar, cutting ties will not affect the military. Unless countries like Japan, South Korea, and the immediate neighbourhood makes a stand, the coup leaders would face less pressure. The silence to the coup from the region and ASEAN is shocking. There have been several strong condemnations across the globe, but none from the region. It appears Southeast Asia decided to keep it low. This could be due to the Chinese influence; Beijing considers the coup as an internal matter. China is an old ally of the military and also one of the largest foreign investors in Myanmar along with the rest of Southeast Asia. 


Yemen: Joe Biden’s new strategy should aim at ending the disastrous war

In the news
On 8 February, the Houthi rebels launched an offensive on Ma’rib, a city in the northern part of Yemen, and one of the few strongholds of the government. The attacks were launched from three fronts and continued despite strong resistance from the government forces, allied tribesmen, and the air cover provided by the Arab coalition. The clash resulted in the death of at least 20 soldiers and few Houthi fighters.

On 4 February, President Biden announced that the US is “ending all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arm sales.” On 5 February, the US State Department informed the Congress that it will reverse the Trump administration’s decision to declare Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization. 

On 7 February, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths began his two-day visit to Iran to meet Iranian foreign minister and officials, to discuss the conflict in Yemen.

Issues at large
First, the shift in the US policy under Biden. The Trump administration, though not directly involved in the war, explicitly extended its support to the Saudi Arabia-led Arab coalition, primarily through increased arms sales, circumventing the opposition the US Congress. It also did not condemn Saudi Arabia for committing human rights violations and war offences in Yemen and in other parts of the region. Continuing the policy against Iran and its proxies, the Trump administration had listed the Houthis as a terrorist organization. Under Joe Biden, there is a shift in the US policy towards Yemen. In his address at the State Department, he remarked that the war in Yemen must end. In this regard, he appointed Timothy Lenderking, a veteran diplomat, to cooperate with the UN and “all the parties to the conflict to push for a diplomatic resolution.” Nevertheless, the State Department condemned and called upon the rebels to halt the offensive and violence that is impacting civilians in Yemen.

Second, the long-drawn war in Yemen and the domestic political crisis. The rebels and the government forces are in a long-drawn conflict and violent clashes continue, as the Houthis remain strong despite stiff resistance from the Arab coalition. The government, despite the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement, lacks decisive power enough to control the rebellion.

Third, the humanitarian crisis. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, the relentless fighting in Yemen has inflicted severe damage, killing more than 110,000 people of which more than 12,500 are civilians. According to the UN, 80 per cent of the population in the country depend on assistance for survival. It also issued strong warnings of an impending famine that will push Yemen into a crisis, from where revival would be nearly impossible.

In perspective
First, the renewed efforts in Yemen to end the war. The government representatives and the Houthis participated in the UN-sponsored peace talks in December 2018. The talks failed and any further negotiations were not held despite repeated efforts from the UN. Biden’s announcement to end support to Saudi Arabia and Martin Griffiths’ visit to Iran, is now seen as the first step towards reviving the efforts to end the conflict. Griffiths stated that his priorities include an agreement between the parties on a “nationwide ceasefire, urgent humanitarian measures and the resumption of the political process.”

Second, the measures Biden ought to take. The assurance on the reversal of Trump’s policy on Yemen has revived hopes on beginning the peace process. By appointing an envoy and announcing a review of assistance to Saudi Arabia, Biden has provided space for diplomacy. However, though his address to the State Department calls for ending the war, it does not provide a solution. The questions of how and what kind of assistance to Saudi Arabia, the US plans to end, must be answered through definitive policies.

Third, the question of responsibility. The war will not end unless the Houthis and the government; the Arab coalition and Iran arrive at a consensus on the issue. The regional countries and other western powers that indirectly support the primary parties to the conflict must consider the humanitarian crisis that is unfolding.


US and Iran: Contradicting statements from Biden and Khamenei on sanctions and renewing nuclear negotiations

In the news
On 7 February, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran made a statement on the removal of sanctions as a precondition for Iran to return to its nuclear commitments. The Washington Post referring to the State TV quoted: “If (the U.S.) wants Iran to return to its commitments, it must lift all sanctions in practice, then we will do verification … then we will return to our commitments.” The report also quoted the Ayatollah saying “This is the definitive and irreversible policy of the Islamic Republic, and all of the country’s officials are unanimous on this, and no one will deviate from it.”

On the same day, when Joe Biden was asked in an interview whether the US would remove sanctions first in order to get Iran back to the negotiating table, he responded negatively saying that Iran should stop enriching Uranium first.

On 10 February, the Wall Street Journal, referring to an IAEA report that it had access to, reported that “Iran has produced a material that is banned under the 2015 nuclear accords and could be used to form the core of a nuclear weapon.” According to the WSJ, the “material produced was a small amount of natural uranium metal.”

Issues at large
First, the new US administration and an old issue in the Middle East. Curbing Iran’s nuclear capability to produce nuclear weapons has been one of the primary goals of the American administrations under different Presidents during the last few decades. Until the Obama administration, sanctions were used as a primary tool to prevent Iran from pursuing the nuclear weapon option. Under Obama, the US tried to approach Iran with a negotiation strategy, thereby halting the sanctions approach. Along with a few other countries, the US in July 2015 signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA); besides the US, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany are a party to the agreement. In 2018, Trump announced unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA without any consultation with other members, and reimposed sanctions on Iran, as a part of his new maximum pressure strategy.

Second, the policy options for the new US administration. Biden earlier did underline the need for the US to return to the JCPOA. He was a part of the Obama administration, that negotiated the JCPOA with Iran. However for Biden, so much had happened between July 2015 (when the Iran nuclear agreement was signed) and January 2021 (when Biden became the President). In a statement last week, Biden announced the “US is back” and “diplomacy is back” strategy and outlined his intentions on Yemen and Saudi Arabia; however, he was silent on Iran. This underlines the huge differences within the US policymaking institutions on Iran – from the Congress to State Department. Biden will have to build consensus within the US on Iran, before reaching out to Iran.

Third, Iran’s maximum pressure strategy. Ironically, it is Iran and not the US, that has been pursuing a maximum pressure strategy since Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. A series of statements in the recent months and actions have announced Iran’s intentions to go ahead with its threats to take the nuclear weapon road. Trump administration’s regional approach (from the Middle East peace plan to assassinations) also had a target-Iran, as an underlying strategy. In return, Iran has been pursuing the nuclear weapon option, to pressurize the US and the others to get back to the JCPOA.

In perspective
Sanctions have not worked in the past. And it would not in the future. Biden will have to build consensus within the US and return to the JCPOA. Iran will have to stop the nuclear weapon route as a strategy and fulfil its JCPOA commitments. Any other option is fraught with danger and regional instability.


Also, from around the world
By Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez

Peace and Conflict from East and Southeast Asia
China: Australian journalist arrested on suspicion of spying
On 8 February, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed that Chinese-born Australian journalist for the state-run media CGTN, had been arrested for allegedly leaking state secrets. On the same day, Australian Foreign Minister said the government was concerned about the number of detentions the arrested journalist Cheng Lai had faced; Australia hoped that the case would be treated with international “standards of justice, procedural fairness and humane treatment.” However, the Chinese spokesperson urged Australia to refrain from interfering in China's handling of the case. China had previously detained the journalist, Cheng Lai, in August 2020 on grounds of “national security.”
 
Hong Kong: Court denies bail to Jimmy Lai
On 9 February Hong Kong’s top court, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) denied bail to media tycoon Jimmy Lai who was detained under China’s national security law in December 2020. Referring to the bail granted by a lower court, the CFA judges maintained that the lower court had used an “erroneous line of reasoning” and “misconstrued” Article 42. A provision under Article 42 reads, “no bail shall be granted to a criminal suspect or defendant unless the judge has sufficient grounds for believing that the criminal suspect or defendant will not continue to commit acts endangering national security.” However, the CFA judges clarified that their verdict focussed only on the nature of the lower court’s judgement; Lai’s team can apply for bail again.
 
North Korea: Continues to maintain the nuclear programme, says UN report accessed by Reuters
On 9 February, Reuters reported it accessed a confidential report by independent sanctions monitors of the UN. According to the report, North Korea continued to maintain and develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programs throughout 2020, thereby violating international sanctions. Further, the report said North Korea used hackers to conduct virtual thefts amounting to USD 316.4 million to support the nuclear programme. The revelation comes after a US State Department spokesperson said the Biden administration planned to adopt a new approach to North Korea which would include possibilities of future diplomacy.
 
The Pacific: Five Micronesian countries announce withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum
On 9 February, Nauru, Kiribati, Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia announced their withdrawal from the Pacific Islands Forum. Their joint statement read, “There is no value in participating in an organisation that does not respect established agreements, including the gentlemen’s agreement on sub-regional rotation.” The sub-regions are Polynesia, Micronesia and Melanesia. The five countries, belonging to the Micronesia sub-region, said it was their candidate’s turn to be appointed as Secretary-General of the Forum. However, the former Prime Minister of Cooks Island was appointed for the post.
 
Peace and Conflict from South Asia
Sri Lanka: P2P, five-day long march held for justice 
On 7 February, the five-day march from ‘Pothuvil to Polikandy’ or ‘P2P’ came to a peaceful end after covering several towns. Prominent Tamil and Muslim politicians, activists, students, and residents took part in the march bringing up the issues of not just the Tamil community but also the Muslims and Indian-origin Tamils. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa criticized the five-day-long protest claiming it was "trying to divide the country,” adding, “while protests are being organised in the South, another group is the North is trying to divide the country” and that those who are organising protests are struggling for “political survival.”
 
India: Uttarakhand flash floods leave 32 dead
On 7 February, a flash flood was triggered by ‘glacier burst’ when a portion of the Nanda Devi glacier broke off at Joshimath in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli district. The floods incurred heavy damage to the Tapovan-Vishnugad hydropower project and the Rishiganga Hydel Project and several homes. Following rescue operations, a total of 32 bodies have been recovered while the number of missing persons stands at 197. The massive flood came as a reminder of the 2013 Kedarnath disaster which led to widespread devastation in the Himalayan region.
 
India: 4G mobile internet restored in J&K 
On 5 February, the Government of India announced the restoration of 4G internet service in the entire region after 18 months. On the announcement, National Conference (NC) vice-president Omar Abdullah tweeted, “4G Mubarak! For the first time since August 2019, all of J&K will have 4G mobile data. Better late than never.” Previously, the government cut 4G service across Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 following the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. The service was restored in two districts, Udhampur in Jammu and Ganderbal in Kashmir, after a year while it remained suspended in the rest of the 18 districts.
 
Pakistan: UNSC Report says the TTP responsible for over 100 cross-border attacks
On 3 February, the 27th Report of the UN Analytical and Monitoring Team showed that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was reported to have overseen a reunification of splinter groups that took place in Afghanistan and was moderated by Al-Qaida. The report cites five entities pledged alliance to TTP in July and August, warning that the merger of TTP is expected to enhance the threat of terrorism to Pakistan and the region. Further, Member State assessments of TTP fighting strength range between 2,500 and 6,000, reporting that TTP was responsible for more than 100 cross-border attacks between July and October 2020.
 
Afghanistan: Abdullah criticises the Taliban for avoiding negotiations
On 9 February, Abdullah Abdullah, head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, criticised the Taliban for not being present at the negotiating table, stating that their absence has stalled the talks for over three weeks. Conversely, the Taliban has been busy with regional trips visiting Iran, Russia and Turkmenistan over the last few days, seeking the regional countries’ support for the implementation of the February 2020 agreement in Doha. These statements come as violence continues to surge with the Taliban being under criticism for “keeping the violence” high as stated by senior US and Afghan officials.
 
Bangladesh: Human Rights groups call for a review of Bangladeshi UN troop deployments
On 6 February, Al Jazeera reported that seven human rights groups called on the United Nations to review its use of Bangladeshi peacekeeping troops after the organisation denied claims by the country’s military. The statement was co-signed by HRW, International Federation for Human Rights, Asian Human Rights Commission, World Organisation against Torture, Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development, Robert F Kennedy Human Rights, and Eleos Justice demanding a comprehensive review of the UN’s ties with the military of Bangladesh. The call was in response to a report titled ‘All the Prime Minister’s Men’ by Al Jazeera’s Investigative Unit revealed how the Bangladesh armed forces, led by General Aziz Ahmed, bought intrusive mass surveillance technology on peacekeeping missions.
 
Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Azerbaijan: Lawsuit regarding the conflict in the 1990s filed against Armenia
On 8 February, Azerbaijan filed a lawsuit against Armenia accusing the latter of “human rights violations during its almost 30-year occupation” of Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven neighbouring districts and during the recent conflict in 2020. Azerbaijan also maintained that Armenia did not implement measures to track 3,800 Azerbaijani nationals who went missing during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the 1990s. Further, it accused Armenia of using ballistic missiles, white phosphorus munitions, and cluster munitions to target Azerbaijani towns in 2020. The lawsuit has been filed with the European Court of Human Rights.
 
Palestine: Fatah, Hamas reach consensus on upcoming elections
On 9 February, two Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, and 12 other groups agreed on electoral mechanisms for the upcoming legislative and parliamentary elections. The announcement came at the end of a two-day session in Egypt. According to a joint statement, the groups have agreed on setting up an electoral cases court, allowing free campaigning. They have also agreed to follow the timetable for the elections and “respect and accept” the results. Fatah runs the Palestinian Authority which has limited self-rule in the West Bank and Hamas has control over the Gaza strip.
 
Egypt: Hosts emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers
On 8 February, Egypt hosted an emergency meeting of Arab countries. Secretary-General of the League of Arab States said the Palestinian issue will remain an important concern for the organisation until an independent Palestinian state is established with East Jerusalem as the capital. He was speaking at an emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers hosted by Egypt. Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, echoed the statement.
 
Libya: Interim government formed; UN hails breakthrough 
On 5 February, the UN-recognised government in Libya and the parallel rebel authority in the country agreed to form an interim unity government. The interim presidency council will be headed by Mohammed al-Menfi, a former diplomat from Benghazi and Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah will be the interim prime minister. Dbeibah is expected to present a new government on 26 February. The decision is a major breakthrough and the UN Secretary-General urged Libyans to “recognize and accept these results and to work with the new authorities that were elected.”
 
Somalia: UNSC calls for dialogue to hold presidential elections 
On 9 February, the UN Security Council urged the Somali government and opposition to resume dialogue to hold the presidential elections. On 8 February, opposition leaders said they no longer recognised Mohamed Abdullahi ‘Farmajo’ as the president. They justified their decision stating his term ended on 8 February, the day when Somalia had scheduled its presidential elections. However, the country missed its deadline after talks between the government and opposition, to decide the electoral procedure, collapsed on 5 February.
 
Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas
EU-Russia: Germany, Poland and Sweden expel Russian diplomats in retaliation 
On 8 February, Germany, Poland and Sweden expelled Russian diplomats in a coordinated act of retaliation over the expulsion of three EU officials by Moscow earlier last week. In response to the move, Moscow criticised the decision saying, “Today's decisions by Poland, Germany and Sweden are unfounded, unfriendly and are a continuation of the very series of actions that the West is taking with regard to our country and which we qualify as interference in our internal affairs.” Previously, Russia had expelled three EU diplomats who had participated in a demonstration in support of Alexey Navalny.
 
The UK: Lifting Northern Ireland restrictions will 'need 70-80 per cent vaccinated'
On 9 February, the chief medical officer stated that Covid-19 restrictions will not be completed lifted in Northern Ireland until 70 to 80 per cent of the people are vaccinated. Further, the officer stated, “It's really important that we ease restrictions gradually,” adding, “We need to be realistic that the current restrictions that we have in place will be in place for a significant part of this year to a greater or lesser extent and into next year as well.” Currently, about 22 per cent of adults have received at least a first dose of a vaccine. 
 
The US: Trump’s second impeachment trial begins
On 9 February, the trial for Donald Trump began in the Senate after it was decided that the proceedings were constitutional. Trump’s defence team argued that he could not face trial after leaving the White House, however, in a 56-44 majority voting the Senate rejected the argument from Trump’s defence team, paving way for the procedures to move forward. However, it is unlikely that Trump would be acquitted because only six Republican senators voted to move forward with impeachment, short of the 17 Republicans whose votes would be needed to convict him. Trump is accused of “incitement of insurrection” for his part in kindling the violence witnessed at the US Capitol House.

Haiti: Unrest continues as President Moïse refuses to step down
On 7 February, President Jovenel Moïse vehemently stated, “I am not a dictator,” adding, “My term ends Feb. 7, 2022.” His statement came in response to the opposition’s demand for his resignation saying his five-year term ended on 7 February 2021, however, Moïse refusing to vacate office, arguing that an interim government occupied the first year of his five-year term. As tensions soared, the government announced the arrest of over 20 people, claiming they had been involved in a plot to overthrow and kill the president. The political crisis in Haiti is likely to worsen the country’s situation.
 
Ecuador: Andres Arauz claims 'victory' in the first round
On 7 February, Andres Arauz claimed victory in Ecuador's presidential election in the first round, however, official projection by Ecuador's National Electoral Council revealed that Arauz would have to face off indigenous candidate and lawyer Yaku Perez in the election run-off. Further, the elections council’s website stated that 13 per cent of poll statements show some type of inconsistency, which means they would have to be reviewed once all the votes are counted. Ecuador’s election is taking place amid the growing discontent over the handling of the pandemic, an economic crisis and other corruption scandals.
 


About the authors
D Suba Chandran is Professor and Dean of the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Aparupa Bhattacherjee, Rashmi B R, Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are PhD Scholars and Project Assistants at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS.

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IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

J&K: The Gupkar Alliance decides to fight the DDC elections together. The ballot may be thicker than principle

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Conflict Weekly
November 2020 | IPRI # 120
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

A peace agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh and a brewing civil war in Ethiopia

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Conflict Weekly
November 2020 | IPRI # 119
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

IS terror in Vienna and Kabul, new controversy along Nepal-China border, and a boundary dispute in India’s Northeast

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J&K
October 2020 | IPRI # 118
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

The Friday Backgrounder: Union Government amends the land laws, and the Kashmiri Opposition protests. There is politics in both

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GENDER AND PEACEBUILDING DURING A PANDEMIC
October 2020 | IPRI # 117
IPRI Comments

Kabi Adhikari

In Nepal, rising gender violence shadows COVID-19 pandemic

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GLOBAL PROTESTS MOVEMENT
October 2020 | IPRI # 116
IPRI Comments

Apoorva Sudhakar

Lebanon: One year of protests; it is more setbacks and little reforms

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GENDER AND PEACEBUILDING DURING A PANDEMIC
October 2020 | IPRI # 115
IPRI Comments

Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare

In Sri Lanka, pandemic has eclipsed women’s role in peacebuilding

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J&K
October 2020 | IPRI # 114
IPRI Comments

Akriti Sharma

The new demands within the State over the Official Language Act

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India's Northeast
October 2020 | IPRI # 113
IPRI Comments

Sourina Bej

The Naga Peace talks: Caught in its own rhetoric, NSCN(IM) will lose its stakes

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J&K
October 2020 | IPRI # 112
IPRI Comments

Akriti Sharma

The Gupkar Declaration: Vociferous Valley and an Indifferent Jammu

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The Friday Backgrounder
October 2020 | IPRI # 111
IPRI Comments

D. Suba Chandran

J&K: Flag, Constitution, Media Freedom and Local Elections

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Conflict Weekly
October 2020 | IPRI # 110
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Solidarity in France, Emergency withdrawn in Thailand, Terror tag removed in Sudan and Hunger in South Asia

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Conflict Weekly
October 2020 | IPRI # 109
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Protests against sexual violence in Bangladesh, One year after Xi-Modi summit, Assassination of a Deobandi scholar in Pakistan and continuing violence in Yemen

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Conflict Weekly
October 2020 | IPRI # 108
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

An Afghan woman nominated for the Nobel and a Dalit woman assaulted in India. External actors get involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

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GENDER AND PEACEBUILDING DURING A PANDEMIC
October 2020 | IPRI # 107
IPRI Comments

Fatemah Ghafori

In Afghanistan, women peacebuilders need more than a seat at the table

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GENDER AND PEACEBUILDING DURING A PANDEMIC
October 2020 | IPRI # 106
IPRI Comments

Tamanna Khosla

In India, home has been the most violent place for women

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GENDER AND PEACEBUILDING DURING A PANDEMIC
October 2020 | IPRI # 105
IPRI Comments

Pushpika Sapna Bara

In India, pandemic relegates women peacebuilders to the margins

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Conflict Weekly
October 2020 | IPRI # 104
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Six million COVID cases in India, Abdullah Abdullah's visit to Pakistan, China's naval exercises in four seas, and the new tensions in Nagorno Karabakh

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Conflict Weekly
September 2020 | IPRI # 103
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Al Qaeda module in India, Naga Peace talks and the Polio problem in Pakistan

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Conflict Weekly
September 2020 | IPRI # 102
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

The Afghan summit in Doha, India-China Five Points agreement, Women protest in Pakistan, New amendment in Sri Lanka and the Bahrain-Israel rapprochement

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The Middle East
September 2020 | IPRI # 101
IPRI Comments

Samreen Wani

Lebanon: Can Macron's visit prevent the unravelling?

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Africa
September 2020 | IPRI # 100
IPRI Comments

Sankalp Gurjar

In Sudan, the government signs an agreement with the rebels. However, there are serious challenges

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Conflict Weekly
September 2020 | IPRI # 99
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Targeted Violence in Pakistan, Protests in Hong Kong and the Charlie Hebdo Trial in France

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The Friday Backgrounder
September 2020 | IPRI # 98
IPRI Comments

D. Suba Chandran

J&K: The PDP meeting, Muharram clashes and the Kashmiri parties vis-à-vis Pakistan

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Conflict Weekly
September 2020 | IPRI # 97
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Anti Racist Protests in the US and the Floods in Pakistan

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Discussion Report
August 2020 | IPRI # 96
IPRI Comments

Sukanya Bali and Abigail Miriam Fernandez

Sri Lanka: Election Analysis, Expectations from the Government, Challenges Ahead, & a road map for India

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The Friday Backgrounder
August 2020 | IPRI # 95
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

J&K: The Gupkar Resolution is a good beginning. So is the NIA charge sheet on the Pulwama Attack.

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Conflict Weekly
August 2020 | IPRI # 94
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Proposed amendment in Sri Lanka, Verdict on the gunman in New Zealand, Peace Conference in Myanmar and the Ceasefire troubles in Libya

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The Friday Backgrounder
August 2020 | IPRI # 93
IPRI Comments

D. Suba Chandran

J&K: Baby steps taken. Now, time to introduce a few big-ticket items

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Conflict Weekly
August 2020 | IPRI # 92
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Further trouble to the Naga Peace Talks, Taliban attack on woman negotiator, Protests in Thailand, Belarus and Bolivia, Israel-UAE Rapprochement, and the Oil Spill in Mauritius

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Friday Backgrounder
August 2020 | IPRI # 91
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

J&K: Integration and Assimilation are not synonymous.

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Conflict Weekly
August 2020 | IPRI # 90
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Release of Taliban prisoners in Afghanistan, Troubles in Naga Peace Talks in India’s Northeast, and a deadly week in Lebanon

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Friday Backgrounder
August 2020 | IPRI # 89
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

J&K: One year later, is it time to change gears?

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Discussion Report
August 2020 | IPRI # 88
IPRI Comments

Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare

Sri Lanka Elections 2020 - A Curtain Raiser: Issues, Actors, and Challenges

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Conflict Weekly
August 2020 | IPRI # 87
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

J&K a year after 5 August 2019, Militant ambush in Manipur, Environmental protests in Northeast India, and the return of street protests in Iraq

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Friday Backgrounder
July 2020 | IPRI # 86
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

J&K: Omar Abdullah complains, there is no space for mainstream leaders. Should there be one?

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Conflict Weekly 28
July 2020 | IPRI # 85
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Floods in Bihar, Nepal and Bangladesh, Abduction of a journalist in Pakistan, Neutralization of militants in Srinagar and the UNAMA report on Afghanistan

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WOMEN, PEACE AND TWENTY YEARS OF UNSC 1325
July 2020 | IPRI # 84
IPRI Comments

Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare

In Sri Lanka, 20 years later women still await the return of post war normalcy

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Friday Backgrounder
July 2020 | IPRI # 83
IPRI Comments

D. Suba Chandran

J&K: After the Hurriyat, is the PDP relevant in Kashmir politics today?

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Conflict Weekly 27
July 2020 | IPRI # 82
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Devastating floods in Assam, and a mob Lynching of cattle smugglers along India-Bangladesh border

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WOMEN, PEACE AND TWENTY YEARS OF UNSC 1325
July 2020 | IPRI # 81
IPRI Comments

Mehjabin Ferdous

In Bangladesh, laws need to catch up with reality

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Conflict Weekly 26
July 2020 | IPRI # 80
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Violence in India's Northeast, FGM ban in Sudan, the UN warning on Global Hunger & the Return of Global Protests

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Friday Backgrounder
July 2020 | IPRI # 79
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

J&K: Four years after Burhan Wani

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Conflict Weekly 25
July 2020 | IPRI # 78
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Conflict and COVID in J&K, Dispute over constructing a temple in Islamabad, Return of the Indian fishermen into the Sri Lankan Waters, and the water conflict over River Nile in Africa

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Friday Backgrounder
July 2020 | IPRI # 77
IPRI Comments

D. Suba Chandran

The Rise, Fall and Irrelevance of Geelani. And the Hurriyat

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Conflict Weekly 24
July 2020 | IPRI # 76
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Geelani's Exit and Continuing Violence in J&K, and the BLA attack on Pakistan stock exchange in Karachi

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June 2020 | IPRI # 75
IPRI Comments

Sudip Kumar Kundu

Cyclone Amphan: West Bengal, Odisha limp back to a distorted normalcy

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June 2020 | IPRI # 74
IPRI Comments

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

An olive branch to the PTM in Pakistan: Will the PTI heed to the Pashtun rights movement

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Conflict Weekly 23
June 2020 | IPRI # 73
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Baloch Disappearance issue returns, Nepal tightens Citizenship rules, and Egypt enters the conflict in Libya

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Conflict Weekly 22
June 2020 | IPRI # 72
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Violence escalates along the India-China border, Cartographic tensions over India-Nepal border, Gas explosion in Assam and Deadly attacks by the Boko Haram in Nigeria

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Conflict Weekly 21
June 2020 | IPRI # 71
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Echoes of Black Lives Matter, Violence in Kashmir Valley, Rohingyas in the deep blue sea, One year of Hong Kong protests, Conflict in Libya and the human-wildlife conflict in South Asia

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Conflict Weekly 20
June 2020 | IPRI # 70
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

A week of violence in the US, Afghanistan and Africa, Urban drivers of political violence, and anti-racism protests in Europe

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Conflict Weekly 19
May 2020 | IPRI # 69
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Cyclone Amphan in the Bay of Bengal, Ceasefire in Afghanistan, Indo-Nepal border dispute in Kalapani, Honour Killing in Pakistan, New protests  in Hong Kong & the Anti-lockdown protests in Europe

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Conflict Weekly 18
May 2020 | IPRI # 68
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Kalapani dispute in India-Nepal border, Migrants exodus in India, Continuing violence in Balochistan and KP

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Conflict Weekly 17
May 2020 | IPRI # 67
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

The return of Hong Kong Protests, a new Ceasefire in Myanmar, China-Australia Tensions on COVID & Trade, and the Al Qaeda-Islamic State clashes in Africa

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Conflict Weekly 16
May 2020 | IPRI # 66
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

The Binge-fighting in Kashmir Valley, SIGAR report on Afghanistan, Killing of a PTM leader in Pakistan, the US Religious Freedom watchlist, and Haftar's ceasefire call in Libya

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Conflict Weekly 15
April 2020 | IPRI # 65
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Ceasefire and Self Rule in Yemen, Syrian war trial in Germany, SIPRI annual report on military spending, and Low civilian casualties in Afghanistan 

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One year after the Easter Attacks in Sri Lanka
April 2020 | IPRI # 64
IPRI Comments

D Suba Chandran

Healing needs Forgiveness, Accountability, Responsibility and Justice

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One year after the Easter Attacks in Sri Lanka
April 2020 | IPRI # 63
IPRI Comments

La Toya Waha

Have the Islamists Won? 

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Conflict Weekly 14
April 2020 | IPRI # 62
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

A new wave of arrests in Hong Kong, One year after Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka, ISIS violence in Mozambique, and the coming global Food Crisis

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 61
IPRI Comments

Alok Kumar Gupta

Jharkhand: Proactive Judiciary, Strong Civil Society Role, Rural Vigilantes

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 60
IPRI Comments

Alok Kumar Gupta

Bihar as Late Entrant: No Prompt Action, Punitive Measures, Migrant Crisis 

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 59
IPRI Comments

Anshuman Behera

Odisha’s Three Principles: Prepare for the Worst, Prepare Early, Prevent Loss of Lives

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 58
IPRI Comments

Niharika Sharma

New Delhi as Hotspot: Border Sealing, Curbing Fake News, Proactive leadership

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 57
IPRI Comments

Vaishali Handique

Northeast India: Civil Society in Unison, Media against Racism, Government’s Timely Preparedness 

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 56
IPRI Comments

Shyam Hari P

Kerala: Past Lessons and War-Footing response by the administration

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 55
IPRI Comments

Shilajit Sengupta

West Bengal: Proactive Local Leadership, Early Lockdown and Decentralised Action

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 54
IPRI Comments

P Harini Sha

Tamil Nadu’s Three Pronged Approach: Delay Virus Spread, Community Preparedness, Welfare Schemes 

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COVID-19 and the Indian States
April 2020 | IPRI # 53
IPRI Comments

Hrudaya C Kamasani

Andhra Pradesh: Early course correction, Independent leadership and Targeted Mitigation  

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 52
IPRI Comments

Sanduni Atapattu

Preventing hatred and suspicion would be a bigger struggle

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 51
IPRI Comments

Chavindi Weerawansha

A majority in the minority community suffers, for the action of a few

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 50
IPRI Comments

Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare

The Cardinal sermons for peace, with a message to forgive

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 49
IPRI Comments

Aparupa Bhattacherjee

Who and Why of the Perpetrators

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 48
IPRI Comments

Natasha Fernando

In retrospect, where did we go wrong?

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 47
IPRI Comments

Ruwanthi Jayasekara

Build the power of Co-existence, Trust, Gender and Awareness

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 46
IPRI Comments

N Manoharan

New ethnic faultlines at macro and micro levels

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ONE YEAR AFTER THE EASTER ATTACKS IN SRI LANKA
April 2020 | IPRI # 45
IPRI Comments

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera

A year has gone, but the pain has not vanished

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WOMEN, PEACE AND TWENTY YEARS OF UNSC 1325
April 2020 | IPRI # 44
IPRI Comments

Kabi Adhikari

In Nepal, it is a struggle for the women out of the patriarchal shadows

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WOMEN, PEACE AND TWENTY YEARS OF UNSC 1325
April 2020 | IPRI # 43
IPRI Comments

Jenice Jean Goveas

In India, the glass is half full for the women

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WOMEN, PEACE AND TWENTY YEARS OF UNSC 1325
April 2020 | IPRI # 42
IPRI Comments

Fatemah Ghafori

In Afghanistan, there is no going back for the women

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Conflict Weekly 13
April 2020 | IPRI # 41
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Executing Mujib's killer in Bangladesh, Continuing conflicts in Myanmar, Questioning Government's sincerity in Naga Peace Deal, Releasing Taliban prisoners in Afghanistan, and a report on damming the Mekong river by China

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Conflict Weekly 12
April 2020 | IPRI # 40
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Globally, Coronavirus increases Domestic Violence, deflates Global Protests, threatens Indigenous Communities and imperils the migrants. In South Asia, two reports question the Assam Foreign Tribunal and the Afghan Peace deal

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Afghanistan
April 2020 | IPRI # 39
IPRI Comments

Sukanya Bali

One month after the deal with the Taliban: Problems Four, Progress None

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Conflict Weekly 11
April 2020 | IPRI # 38
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Releasing a former soldier convicted of a war crime in Sri Lanka, Deepening of internal conflicts in Myanmar and the Taliban’s Deal is a smokescreen in Afghanistan

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Report Review
March 2020 | IPRI # 37
IPRI Comments

Lakshmi V Menon

Pakistan: Decline in Terrorism

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Conflict Weekly 10
March 2020 | IPRI # 36
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

More violence in Afghanistan, Naxal ambush in India, Federal-Provincial differences in Pakistan's Corona fight, and a new report on the impact of CoronaVirus on Conflicts

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Conflict Weekly 09
March 2020 | IPRI # 35
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

The CoronaVirus: South Asia copes, China stabilises, Europe bleeds and the US wakes up finally

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Conflict Weekly 08
March 2020 | IPRI # 34
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Triumphant Women's march across Pakistan, Anti-CAA Protests in Dhaka,  Two Presidents in Afghanistan, and Turkey-Russia Ceasefire in Syria

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Conflict Weekly 07
March 2020 | IPRI # 33
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Aurat March in Pakistan, US-Taliban Deal in Doha, Anti-CAA protest in Meghalaya, Sri Lanka’s withdrawal from the UNCHCR Resolution, and the problems of ceasefire in Syria and Libya 

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Conflict Weekly 06
February 2020 | IPRI # 32
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Seven Days of Peace in Afghanistan, Violence in Delhi, Setback to Peace Talks on Libya and the Ceasefire in Gaza

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Conflict Weekly 05
February 2020 | IPRI # 31
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Afghan Election Results, US-Taliban Deal, Hafiz Saeed Conviction, Quetta Suicide Attack, Assam Accord, Mexico Femicide and the Climate Change impact on Bird Species

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Conflict Weekly 04
February 2020 | IPRI # 30
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Sri Lanka drops Tamil anthem, Assam looks for a new census for the indigenous Muslim population, Bangladesh faces a Rohingya boat tragedy and Israel witnesses resurgence of violence post-Trump deal

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Conflict Weekly 03
February 2020 | IPRI # 29
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Continuing Violence in Afghanistan, Bodo Peace Accord in Northeast India, Attack on the anti-CAA protesters in Delhi, and Trump's Middle East Peace Plan

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Conflict Weekly 02
January 2020 | IPRI # 28
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Bangladesh and ICJ's Rohingya Verdict, Taliban and Afghan Peace, Surrenders in India's Northeast, New government in Lebanon and the Berlin summit on Libya

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Conflict Weekly 01
January 2020 | IPRI # 27
IPRI Comments

IPRI Team

Nile River Agreement, Tehran Protests, Syrians meet in Berlin, Honduran Caravans in Mexico, Taliban's ceasefire offer, Quetta Suicide attack, Supreme court verdict on J&K and the Brus Agreement in Tripura

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Myanmar
October 2019 | IPRI # 26
IPRI Comments

Aparupa Bhattacherjee

Will prosecuting Suu Kyi resolve the Rohingya problem?

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Climate Change
October 2019 | IPRI # 25
IPRI Comments

Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh

Four Actors, No Action

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From Okjökull to OK:
September 2019 | IPRI # 24
IPRI Comments

Rashmi Ramesh

Death of a Glacier in Iceland

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The Hong Kong Protests:
August 2019 | IPRI # 23
IPRI Comments

Harini Madhusudan

Re-defining mass mobilization

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The Hong Kong Protest:
August 2019 | IPRI # 22
IPRI Comments

Parikshith Pradeep

Who Wants What?

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Africa
December 2020 | IPRI # 6
IPRI Briefs

Apoorva Sudhakar

Ballots and Bloodshed: Trends of electoral violence in Africa

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Myanmar
March 2019 | IPRI # 5
IPRI Comments

Aparupa Bhattacherjee

The Other Conflict in Rakhine State

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West Asia
February 2019 | IPRI # 4
IPRI Comments

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Yemen: Will Sa'nna fall?

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China and Islam
February 2019 | IPRI # 3
IPRI Comments

Harini Madhusudhan

Sinicizing the Minorities

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Terrorism
January 2019 | IPRI # 2
IPRI Comments

Sourina Bej

Maghreb: What makes al Shahab Resilient?

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Global Politics
January 2019 | IPRI # 1
IPRI Comments

Aparupa Bhattacherjee

Myanmar: Will 2019 be better for the Rohingya?

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